(09-12-2018 01:28 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(09-12-2018 01:20 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-12-2018 01:10 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(09-12-2018 12:03 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Um, looking at Fangraphs, Kershaw had a 0.8 WAR lead in '16. So it was a split decision there- similar to what we can easily see this year with Verlander getting the fWAR lead.

And the thing with '16- Kershaw didn't just not win, he was only on 11/30 ballots. So it wasn't really close

Well you're the one who says that voters are mostly looking at ERA, which means fWAR would be meaningless for them.

Sale has a .4 lead lead in fWAR and 1.6 lead in bWAR. It's likely he'll finish around tied in the former and up at least 1.0 in the latter. The sheer fact he's been more valuable than Verlander is a good enough reason for him to still be in the race.

He probably won't be tied. I mean Verlander just in 2 starts in September has 0.8 WAR. So he could easily pick up 1 more and get up to a 0.4-0.5 WAR lead......

I think voters look at ERA and innings a whole hell of a lot more than WAR. I think there will be a number of voters who see Sale at 150-160 and basically mark him off. They definitely did with Kershaw- and Kershaw had a better case in '16 than Sale does this year.

He could also throw 6 innings/3 runs and gain nothing. Stop acting like every game is going to be a great game. If he picked up .8 WAR every two starts, he'd be looking at 13 WAR.

I'm not saying Sale is going to win. I'm not even necessarily saying he should win. I'm saying I personally would still consider voting for him. But I understand he likely won't win, that voters do not look at WAR, and overall I have no problem with it.

He's got extremely favorable matchups the rest of the year....

Also, just as much, Sale could struggle and lose some of his WAR. It's absolutely no lock that he would be where he was earlier. In fact it'd be a major suprise.

Also, Verlander won't be the only option. Got Blake Snell down in Tampa. He's got a 2.00 ERA now in 162 innings. 15 more innings right now than Sale, and only 33 behind Verlander. I could easily see voters giving him the nod.