(09-06-2018 11:44 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-06-2018 11:39 AM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  OK, so I mis-stated it earlier. You're not just discounting the first half, you're dismissing it. Because SOME teams and players change. Fine. Let's just say that's a great idea. Now, why is the half way point the right one to evaluate? It's better than the whole season? Why is it better than, say, the last 30 days? And if you are willing to accept the argument that a team like CO has an easier time than it looks because they are playing teams that have decent records but are out of the race, why can't you accept that teams that are Division leaders/contenders will play extremely hard to keep that position and/or fight for home field? Cubs are 19-11 in their last 30; do you really think they're not a tough matchup for AZ? (Who, by the way, is 15-15 in their last 30.)

Look, there are a million ways to parse this. The fact that I want AZ to have a tough schedule has nothing to do with your half-baked analysis, but it's also (likely) irrelevant. CO, as I already asserted, is in the driver's seat. Even though SOS is about the same they have an easier road than AZ because they play 3 decent-record-no-playoffs teams, so from the Dodgers standpoint if they get swept this weekend they're basically toast. If they can win one they've got a chance but might need some breaks. If they can manage 2 on the road without Jansen I like their chances.

I just don't think you can look at the whole season numbers and act like they're Gospel like you want to act. You want to act like Atlanta is a tough opponent for Arizona. They are sub .500 over the last 67 games. That's not good. They aren't a .550 level team right now.

To be charitable to Brooksie, maybe he's thinking ahead to next year's Braves team (unconventional wisdom) :)