(04-14-2018 11:02 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(04-14-2018 10:37 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(04-14-2018 10:08 PM)stever20 Wrote:  The question now is what is a typical Kershaw season. I don't think you can count on him even giving the Dodgers 30 starts(3 of last 4 years he's gone 21-27 starts).

The Dodgers problem now is they're falling so far behind Arizona. 6.5 after tonight. With 7 more games left in the next 4 weeks. Arizona after tonight should be 11-3. If they just play .500 ball rest of the way, they would go 85-77. LA would have to go even right now 82-67 to top them- a 89 win pace. LA can definitely do that- but they're going to need Arizona to come back to earth some as well. If Arizona plays .550 ball rest of the way- in the 148 games- they would get another 81 wins. That would put them at 92-70. Now, LA would need to go 89-60- or a 97 win pace. Maybe doable- but can you really count on them for that? And the big problem for LA is they do not want to add any payroll this year to reset the tax, so the additions they're going to be able to make are minimal at best.

When I say typical, I mean a great Kershaw season.

I just don't think that's realistic now. The odds of him going 30 starts/200 innings with stellar numbers right now unfortunately are pretty slim IMO. His FIP right now is 3.57 thru 3 starts. You look at all the projections on Fan Graphs for him. All in the 2.63-2.75 ERA with a FIP of 2.65-2.82. Those numbers full season would be his worst since 2010. I don't think we ever see great Kershaw over a full season. Maybe a month, but season? Probably not.

You guys have done some decent Dodgers analysis while I've been trying to ignore MLB for a couple of days. A few thoughts/responses:
- The Dodgers are going to pay Kershaw. Or, they're going to try really hard to pay him. It's certainly possible somebody comes in and goes nuts and Friedman decides to let him go, but the Dodgers worked really hard to reset the luxury tax for a reason. It wasn't just so they could go after Harper; it's also so they can sign Kershaw. He's having a very nice day today - vintage Kershaw - but stever's right too. It's too much to expect a guy at his age with his back condition to be dominant for a season but he's still gonna be number one starter quality for a few more years if he doesn't hurt something else.
- Following the luxury tax point and as mentioned earlier, they're not going to trade for anybody that'll put the team over the threshold this year. BUT, if Kemp keeps this up for a little bit longer there might be some teams interested in bringing him in with one year left after this. Might be an opportunity there.
- The D'backs just aren't worth worrying about right now. Too many things are wrong to fret over the division lead. For that to be an issue, I'd have to see some metrics that imply things could turn around soon. Other than Puig (see below) I'm not seeing anything very promising. FB velos are down, injuries are piling up, too many guys aren't making good contact, ERA is trending up.
- Puig is the one guy I'm NOT worried about. His exit velo is among the best in MLB. Launch angle could be better but that's ok. His BABIP was around .230 or so the last I checked so I'm feeling pretty good about his prospects.

Nice game so far today but whatever.