(03-09-2018 08:20 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(03-09-2018 05:41 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(03-09-2018 04:58 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(03-09-2018 04:44 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(03-09-2018 03:58 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  you also seriously implied that two data points is a trend, primaries = Generals and 'the team that won' is going to be as motivated/invested as the team that lost.

Before the last election (the Presidential cycle) dozes of knowledgeable people and even more posters were making identical claims to yours about (among other things) the changing demographics of the country etc etc etc....

and they were all wrong.

If you'd like to continue to argue the same point... fine...

And you lost the popular vote by a wide margin. Look, you guys found a way, for the second time in the last five elections, to gerrymander your way to the Oval Office. Okay, just simply make that argument if you'd like.

Either way, there are a few things going on here in Texas

1) Historically, Democratic vote margins improve dramatically in statewide races over the primary voting margin

2) The Democrats had a massive increase in turnout in their primary, far outpacing the Republicans.

Now, you could argue that the increase in item 2 will mitigate the historic trend in item 1. We will have to see about that.

I'd argue that its way too early to write Beto off. And that the primary results in no way point to a massive Cruz win. Why not go back to 2012 to see the last Cruz race.

In 2012.... Republican primary turnout vs Democratic Primary turnout 75-25%. Actual final voting margin (Cruz over Sadler) 55% to 40%. So a 50 point margin in primary vote went all the way down to a 15% one.

This year, the primary margin was closer to 60-40. It doesn't take a 35 percent improvement in vote margin to elect O'Rourke to the Senate.

Delusion was one of my daughter's vocabulary words this week. You continue in the delusion that the Democrats won the last election and that gerrymandering had something to do with your large loss in the electoral college. Delusion-"erroneous belief that is held despite evidence to the contrary"

Ok, what would YOU call a situation where the system is designed so that a candidate can win with fewer votes than the other candidate?

I'd call it gerrymandering. Others would call it 'the legacy of a racist electoral system designed to protect slavery' that has the same impact as a racial gerrymander today. I think you'd prefer gerrymandering.

General rule, if you can get more votes than your opponent and still lose, then its effectively gerrymandered. Especially if it helps one race or party over another repeatedly.

WARNING - If you even try to argue that the solution is for Democrats to move to other areas, then I WILL bring up discriminatory practices in the Homestead Act, and the fact that other minorities are effectively shut out of economic and educational opportunities in many 'red' areas.

Its called the electoral college. Its the way our elections have worked since 1789. No its not gerrymandering. You have 51 individual races. It doesn't matter if you get 3 or 4 or 5 million more votes in one state. That is irrelevant to the rules.

If you don't like it, amend the constitution or move to someplace without an electoral college, like Iran or Russia. Don't continue the delusional nonsense about being cheated.

Iran or Russia don't have free elections. Try again.

Basically, you guys got 3 million fewer votes and you don't even care that it got you fewer votes. Because to you, it appears as if you don't see that as undemocratic or even a problem. How do you define a democratic election?

To your point, our current system is a system that disproportionally discounts the votes of minorities, and was created for the purpose of protecting slavery. Racist system then, racist impact today.

Would you prefer we just call it gerrymandering?
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But back the topic of Texas. Remember that the EC could come back to bite the GOP on the butt, bigly. Not in 2020, but eventually Texas WILL flip and will flip permanently. When it does, the Conservatives are absolutely f*cked. Not if but WHEN Texas flips, you're going to rue the day the Dems wanted to discuss a popular vote for President. Don't whine when it happens and don't expect the Dems to help you out of that jam.

Consider the following scenario. Its 2028 and Texas and Arizona have flipped. You guys are going to be so unbelievably screwed. The EV has been a mechanism to discount minority votes, but will, within 10 years, become a mechanism to give Latino Americans, and Mexican Americans specifically, an absolute hammerhold on who becomes President. All thanks to the EV system. Not if, but WHEN it happens, you can thank yourself.