(02-04-2018 12:13 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(02-02-2018 09:48 AM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  And the ACC has the most viewers in its footprint. The ACC is stable.

IMO, the ACC is very stable, but because of the GOR, the buyout, and because the SEC and B1G don't want any of their schools and are unlikely to in the foreseeable future.

Viewership-wise, I think there's only real loyalty to the ACC in the NC - VA core. The deep southern schools, particularly Miami and FSU, don't identify with the ACC at all except as a paycheck, and it's pretty much the same among the northern schools.

The ACC is a good working arrangement, and it has never been more successful on the court and on the gridiron at the same time as it is now. But it is a 3-component hybrid anyway. It lacks and likely always will lack the cultural cohesion of the SEC, B1G, and PAC.

If we think about "Big 10 country", it's basically the entire mid-west. The SEC? The entire southeast save for North Carolina. The PAC? The whole west coast.

The ACC? Basically North Carolina and Virginia. A much smaller core footprint.

Quo the Big 10 and the SEC would love a presence in Virginia and North Carolina.

When you said they were stable because of the GOR you said enough. Also as we move ever closer to a content driven pay model then Clemson and Florida State along with Miami and Virginia Tech will all increase in value.

What might be said that is true, is that if either the SEC or Big 10 lands either of Texas and Oklahoma that their conference might find itself in a position where no school from the ACC can increase the value of their conference.

To put it into perspective Oklahoma and Texas both deliver an economic impact of over 1 billion dollars from a brand perspective. Nobody in the ACC outside of N.D. can do that. In fact none of them have an impact that exceeds 400 million other than N.D.. If the SEC and Big 10 split those schools we would both essentially be set since the only three schools that could add value after those two are taken would be Ohio State, Alabama, and Notre Dame in that order. So if the Big 10 wanted to expand again they would have to land Alabama and Notre Dame if they were going to make money. And the SEC would have to add Ohio State and Notre Dame if they were going to make money.

So the whole realignment game comes down to Texas and Oklahoma. If the Big 12 survives and they become unobtainable then the GOR is the only thing protecting the ACC. Should the ACCN not help them to close their economic gap and should content continue to drive the pay model while the market model gradually goes away, then both the Big 10 and SEC would only be able to find targets of value in the ACC. (I'm assuming here that the PAC will always stay together because of the cost of minor sports travel).

North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Florida State, and to a lesser extent N.C. State, and Miami would all hold more value than any of the Big 10's last four additions other than Penn State, and more value than any of the SEC's last four additions other than Texas A&M.

But an SEC with OU and a Big 10 with UT would probably be the one event that truly made the ACC safe.