(01-03-2018 11:37 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(01-03-2018 11:30 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  The problem is the polls were trying to mirror the selection committee process.

There's little evidence that this happens, in fact, on the crucial decision day, the polls come out before the CFP. E.g., this year, both the AP and coaches polls came out with Alabama at #4 before the CFP released its final rankings. So if anything, one can argue that the CFP took its tip from the polls, not vice-versa.

But even if so, that doesn't address the computer problem - they had UCF way out of the playoffs too.

I agree that maybe a 8 or 16 team playoff would be better. There is a happy medium that balances the problem of allowing deserving teams in while keeping undeserving teams out (an equally bad problem). E.g., most pro leagues, for money reasons, have playoffs that let undeserving teams in - the Tennessee Titans are in the NFL playoffs with a 9-7 record, NBA teams make the playoffs with 40 losses, etc. They don't belong in the playoffs, but they are in because of the money.

On the other hand, for college football, 4 may be too little. But even if it is, since $$$ is always the most important thing, not competitive purity, the dollars will decide it.

The key in my mind is to avoid the error of keeping the best team out, not the error of allowing an undeserving team in who simply gets hot-at least they won it on the field. I think TCU was the best team in 2014 and they got kept out. I think Oklahoma St. was better than LSU in 2011 and instead, they gave Alabama a 2nd shot at LSU. I believe very strongly Texas was the best team in 2008 and they got kept out. I don't think UCF is top 8. 12 was about right. But by going to 8, they can have room for an unbeaten team with a weaker schedule by guaranteeing a slot to the best G5 champ.

I don't believe UCF is necessarily better than Auburn anymore than I believe 2008 Utah was better than 2008 Alabama. They were better prepared and motivated and the better team that day. And that didn't surprise me at all. UCF IS good and Auburn wanted to be somewhere else. Auburn beat Georgia 40-17 at home when they were playing a #1 team that had already clinched its division while they were facing a do or die game. Then Auburn lost to UGA 28-7 at a neutral site when both had everything on the line. College teams are very variable based on motivation.