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2017-2018 Basketball Games of Interest
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ODUBB35 Offline
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I Root For: Old Dominion
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Post: #311
RE: 2017-2018 Basketball Games of Interest
(01-24-2018 08:11 AM)odu09 Wrote:  
(01-24-2018 07:17 AM)odu09 Wrote:  According to ESPN's BPI and predictive metrics (not sure how garbage they are) we are projected to go 10-1 the rest of the way with our only loss @WKU. Our toughest win (according to them) will be against LT with only 52% certainty of winning. They have us at 59% winning chance against MTSU.

I went ahead and did the other top teams in the conference to post on the CUSA board. Here is what ESPN BPI's predicts the top finish to look like:

#1 ODU, 10-1, finishing 16-2. Loss to WKU

#2 MTSU, 10-1, finishing 16-2. Loss to ODU.

#3 WKU, 9-2, finishing 15-3. Losses to MT and UAB.

#4 UAB, 8-3, finishing 12-6.

#5 LT, 8-2, finishing 11-7.

#? Mars, 2-9, finishing 7-11.

Some notes: it seems ESPN doesn't take into account Marshall returning to full strength with their block machine. They know that LT has had a difficult schedule so they think they will finish strong, which would be no surprise. The largest percentage of victory is MT vs Rice, which gives MT a 99.1% chance of winning. That's the highest I've ever seen - granted I haven't paid too close attention. ODU's most difficult win will be against LT with a 52% of winning.

If we win both home games next weekend, I'll be thrilled. It would almost guarantee a Top 4 finish.

We have two tough road trips left (@WKU/Marshall and @LT/USM). 2-2 would be nice. Anything more would be gravy.
01-24-2018 09:08 AM
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RE: 2017-2018 Basketball Games of Interest - ODUBB35 - 01-24-2018 09:08 AM



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