(11-07-2017 12:11 PM)stever20 Wrote:  really interesting with Kershaw-
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/clayton-...is-sleeve/

talking about how he doesn't throw his curve when he's behind in the count....

look at the numbers:
1-0 12/36 2 2b 4 hr
2-0 7/15 2 2b 2 hr
3-0 0/0 bb
2-1 6/27 1 2b 2 hr
3-1 0/5 5 bb
25/83 5 2b 8 hr
was also 12/55 2 2b 1 3b 2 hr full count (1.5% of the time thrown)
and also 27/90 4 2b 5 hr 1st pitch(4.9% of the time thrown)
so 15 of his homers were thrown in counts where he threw the curve less than 5% of the time. In all the other counts- he gave up only 8 hr. .281 avg against in those non curve ball counts. .174 avg against when he wasn’t in those counts.
oh, and 17/55 with a 1-1 count(only 13.9% curves thrown) with 2 2b and 3 hr.
So 81/283- .286 avg against when he throws his curve normally 15% or less.
55/358- .154 avg against when he throws his curve normally 15% or more.

In playoffs- he gave up 8 homers
4 on 1st pitch of count
1 on 1-0 count
1 3-2 count
1 2-2 count
1 1-1 count
So of 31 homers total this year- he gave up 21 of them on counts where he would throw the curve less than 5% of the time. 25 when it's less than 15% of the time.

You would really think the Dodgers/Kershaw would know this.

They absolutely know it. If the guy doesn't trust his command, he's limited.