(10-09-2018 10:17 AM)I_LUV_MEMPHISTIGERS Wrote:  

(10-09-2018 09:56 AM)SublimeKnight Wrote:  

(10-09-2018 09:39 AM)I_LUV_MEMPHISTIGERS Wrote:  

(10-09-2018 06:45 AM)MagicKnightmare Wrote:  

(10-08-2018 09:16 PM)Memphis Yankee Wrote:  Sooner or later it has to end. UCF has had a few breaks in this series. They're a great team, but last year they got us twice in their place and we almost beat them in a championship game.

These teams aren't that far apart on the field. You never know what is going to happen but I think we'll show ourselves well. Memphis has a lot of talent and if we can run on them we'll keep their O off the field.

They haven't exactly beat Murderer's Row this year. Let's just see what happens. Memphis will be ready. That I guarantee.

Speaking of Murderer's Row ....

Mercer
Georgia State
South Alabama
UConn

The thing that scares me about Memphis is they have beaten a bunch of nobodys and lost to the two teams with a minor pulse on the schedule. I don't think anybody knows what kind of team this Memphis team is, but we will know after Saturday for sure.

That's a fair objective assessment. There is one common denominator in both losses I haven't wrapped my finger around, rain. Of course both teams had to play in the same rain, but is that our Achilles Heal with a new QB to keep our Offense at 3 TDs or less...for the time being at least. Our QB's pass efficiency dropped by 15-20% in both of those. Losing by 1 point @ Navy in a rainstorm with a new QB was easily justifiable. But eeash, then giving up 40 @ Tulane in the rain, not so much dancing around that problem with the Defense, lol.

There's a game called Axis Football that a few UCF fans are involved with. They run a simulation every week and they've been surprisingly close to the actual outcomes (from the UCF board):

Quote:UCONN SIM: 54-17 actual was 56-17
SC State SIM 57-17 actual was 38-0 (subtract 17 from both, you get 40-0 this one was the most "off")
FAU SIM 62-28 actual was 56-36
Pitt SIM 44-21 actual was 45-14
SMU SIM 45-23 actual was 48-20

They were off for our FCS game, but if you watched the FCS game, there was something off with UCF that game.

They did the simulation for Memphis in 3 weather conditions:
Windy: UCF 54-30
Rainy: UCF 37-31
Sunny: UCF 56-33

So it's interesting that you think Memphis plays poorly in the rain, but that's the game they have Memphis within a score on.

Interesting data, I pretty much can foresee any of those outcomes, lol. Let's check back after Saturday and compare the simulations to actuals. I guess that's where the "???" comes into play with Memphis right now. Was it Navy and Tulane are the only two teams with a pulse, or we couldn't defeat Sesame Street U in the rain. It's some combination of both I'm sure, just not sure how heavily weighted each factor was yet.

No offense but Norvell is also known for keeping his foot on the gas and not taking his starters out after the game is already way out of control, which makes the wins vs terrible teams look better. I remember Ferguson and Miller being in way later in games last season than anyone should be unless you're just looking to run up the stats and score.