UCGrad1992
Legend
Posts: 31,956
Joined: Sep 2013
Reputation: 2312
I Root For: Bearcats U
Location: North Carolina
|
RE: Mayweather - McGregor
The bettors beg to differ...
Quote:Experts and pundits are in rare unanimity over the Floyd Mayweather Jr.-Conor McGregor superfight. McGregor, they say, has absolutely no chance.
With the fight a month away, people are betting on it, and … what do you know? They’re betting on McGregor.
“The odds for this fight were first released in November 2016 when it was still just a rumor,” said Joe Osborne, content manager for OddsShark, a sports gambling information site. McGregor started out about 9½-1.
The lure of winning $9 or $10 for a dollar bet on McGregor seemed to be much greater than betting a huge amount to win a little on Mayweather. The McGregor money started coming in, and drove down his price, eventually to as low as 3½-1.
Dave Mason, a spokesman for the wagering site Betonline.ag, said 89 percent of his book’s bets have been on McGregor.
McGregor is Irish, and his popularity with bettors may even be greater overseas. “McGregor has shortened up as punters are incredibly patriotic over here for ‘one of their own,’” said Jessica Bridge, head of public relations at the British-based gambling company Ladbrokes.
So what’s going on? Do bettors know something that every prognosticator in the world doesn’t?
One thing to consider is that this is not a normal fight. It’s more like a spectacle, getting heavy coverage in places that don’t usually pay much attention to boxing. “Any big fight like this attracts a lot of casual bettors, a lot of people who don’t bet on boxing normally, and they love to take the underdog and hope for the big payout or the big knockout,” said OddsShark’s sports analyst, Jon Campbell.
The McGregor bandwagon seems to be driven largely by smaller stakes gamblers. “Due to the odds being so lopsided, you need to bet big to win big on Mayweather,” Bridge said. “So larger wagers are being placed on him. But more individual wagers of smaller amounts have been placed on Notorious.”
Scott Cooley, a spokesman for Bookmaker.eu, saw a similar pattern. “The wager handle is tilted toward McGregor, 75-25, as most of the smaller wagers are on the underdog side.”
“The public is certainly siding with McGregor because they like the value, but we have wiseguys on both sides of this fight,” he said. “There are highly respected players that believe McGregor has a good chance to upset Mayweather. Whether that trend continues over the next month remains to be seen.”
Many bookmakers expect the odds to swing back as the Aug. 26 fight approaches and smart gamblers see an opportunity to bet on Mayweather at a good price. Mason said he thought the true odds on the fight should be more like 20-1. “I think we’re going to see the sharper bettors come in later,” he said.
The one-way nature of the money so far has some books a little worried.
“We’re going to be huge Floyd Mayweather fans,” Mason said. He said it was likely to be the most important moment financially for his site at least since the Super Bowl. (The bookies lost that one. Players bet the Patriots, and they won.)
All the bookmakers say the action is hot and heavy on this fight.
“It’s as big as the big fights get,” Bridge said. “Despite this arguably not being a ‘normal’ boxing match, punters do not care in the slightest and they cannot wait for the fight to get underway.”
Osbourne said, “This will be by far the biggest fight ever bet.” He said it could double the money wagered on the Mayweather-Manny Pacquiao fight of 2015 and perhaps equal the betting on the Super Bowl. “Compared to other big fights, there is no comparison. Mayweather vs. McGregor is the biggest for how much money has been bet this far in advance.”
Cooley said of his book: “We aren’t quite to the Mayweather-Pacquiao volume yet. But limits will be raised and betting will pick up as the fight nears, so we certainly expect to exceed that fight’s total handle well in advance of Aug. 26.”
There is not necessarily wisdom in crowds. Though many eager players are betting on McGregor, he may still be overmatched against the boxing legend Mayweather, as the experts predict.
Maybe it’s wishful thinking, but an awful lot of fans like McGregor, and they are willing to put up their money to prove it.
If I was a betting man..
|
|
07-26-2017 06:10 PM |
|