(07-10-2017 11:47 AM)lance99 Wrote:  

(07-10-2017 08:45 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  I believe the service academies are all upwardly mobile. Army chooses to sit out, and Navy thought it was joining a major when it finally came to terms with the Big East, only to see it bottom out (they committed to it regardless). And, I don't think one can come to conclusions over the Big XII and AFA from the last go-around. The conference is dying and expansion will come at the cost of prolonging some of the arrangements which is a total non-starter for them, while AFA may not have the best people on the tempo and styles needed to work with other conferences when pushed to it (ala the lacrosse thing and their AD saying nobody called them).

I'm of the belief that if the B12 implodes, there will still be a fifth major conference. There will still be enough power programs out there that can fetch respectable money and wouldn't dictate HUGE network revenue streams. Think Big East-lite. So, the Houston's, SMU's, UConn's, Cincy's...put BYU, the aforementioned AFA, and some of the remnants of the Big XII? Yeah, that could still pull money.

Schools that if they really could commit to athletics, and purposefully lobbied for it, would likely "get there:" the SA's, Rice, Tulane

Presently stuck and unknown but popular bets: UConn, Cincy, Houston, BYU, Colorado State

Who knows, more downside than upside: New Mexico, UNLV, SDSU, USF, UCF, Temple, SMU

In the realm of basketball? The upwardly mobile include: Gonzaga, Richmond, Davidson, SLU, and Dayton. I think Wichita State upgraded...they will have to demonstrate they can sustain success in a conference as thick as the AAC, and not resemble those like Temple and Memphis who we all know are good, but aren't currently consistent to the level of Cincy or SMU (presently). VCU is in Wichita State' boat...their ceiling, if the A10 were to ever dwindle, wouldn't be a Big East that seems to have no interest in public school members.

The issue with Air Force will always be this: They will always be a package with at least one other Front Range School. That is extremely problematic if a Conference wants them.

As far as the Big XII, assuming they implode, I just do not see East Coast Schools jumping there, especially if one of the schools that leaves is Kansas(Basketball).The only School at the moment that could back fill would be NMST, and that is only due to location. UMass/UConn/Temple are non starters, unless they are a package.

BYU basically has two options: Independence or MWC. Big XII door has closed and the PAC wants nothing to do with them.

In the case of Rice and Tulane. I would pick Rice first.

Everyone else is just stuck....

The issue with Air Force will always be this: They will always be a package with at least one other Front Range School. That is extremely problematic if a Conference wants them.

When I run realignment theories or possibilities, I always struggle separating Wyoming/Colorado St/Air Force/New Mexico. These schools seem "stuck at the hip" by choice. I believe these four should always stay together because I'm all for rivalries and geography. Another four that I like together are Tulsa/SMU/Rice/Tulane because they are regionally close and all private. Heck, I'd even consider a merger of those 8 and UTEP.

BYU basically has two options: Independence or MWC. Big XII door has closed and the PAC wants nothing to do with them.

I think BYU can survive independence pretty well. They can schedule almost anyone!

Power teams scheduled next 5 seasons (according to FBSchedules.com):

2017: LSU (neutral in Houston), Utah (home), Wisconsin (home), Mississippi St (away)
2018: Arizona (away), California (home), Wisconsin (away), Washington (away), Utah (away)
2019: Utah (home), Tennessee (away), USC (home), Washington (home)
2020: Utah (away), Michigan St (home), Arizona St (away), Minnesota (away), Missouri (home), Stanford (away)
2021: Arizona (neutral in Las Vegas), Utah (home), Arizona St (home), Washington St (away), Virginia (home), USC (away), Baylor (away)

Include annual games against Boise St and schedules that are essentially filled with MWC/AAC opponents minus 1 or 2 per season.

They'll be fine unaffiliated in football.