(08-19-2017 03:04 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  So if the Pac's gambit in 2010 to gut the Big 12 actually succeeded, how would everything have gone down? I'm guessing that CU and the Texoma 4 (OU/OSU/UT/TT) wouldn't move until 2012. This would allow time for the other Big 12 schools to make arrangements with other conferences and permit the Big 12 to dissolve itself without anyone paying exit fees. This might also have delayed the departure of NU until 2012, but I'm not sure about that. Missouri and Texas A&M are picked up by the SEC in 2012 as actually occurred, while Baylor, ISU, KU, and KSU join the Big East.

I doubt that the Big East's expansion would slow the decline of the conference. If anything, I think adding such far-flung schools of dubious value (besides KU) would accelerate the decline. TCU was scheduled to join the Big East in 2012, but that would put the conference at 13 football members. Perhaps TCU's entrance would be delayed? I believe Pitt and Syracuse would still have left for the ACC in 2013, which was the more stable of the two major east coast conferences at the time. TCU joins in 2013 to keep the conference at 12 football members. Here the Big East is not as desperate to add schools as they were in our timeline, so Boise and SDSU don't receive an invite, while of the C-USA schools, only Houston is invited.

I think ND is given the same deal by the ACC as they actually were and so departs in 2013 too. Rutgers will leave for the Big Ten in 2014. Maryland is still going to be poached by the Big Ten, so the ACC is still going to seek a replacement, and Louisville is still likely to be that replacement. WVU is technically up for grabs too, but their academics are worse than Louisville. Would there be a split between the Catholic 7 and the football schools? I really don't know, though I'm inclined to say yes. They will take the Big East name, while the football schools might possibly pick up the discarded but valuable Big 12 name. In 2014, Louisville and Rutgers are replaced by UCF and Navy, the latter of which joins a year earlier than scheduled in reality.

Another question is does the Big East/Big 12 retain its "power" status with the advent of the CFP? My guess is that the conference is no longer considered a power, as it's not all that much better off than the American in our timeline.

The evolution of the (old) Big East/(new) Big 12:

2011 Big East
FB: Cincinnati, Louisville, Pitt, Rutgers, Syracuse, UConn, USF, WVU
NFB: DePaul, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John's, Villanova

2012 Big East
FB (East): Pitt, Rutgers, Syracuse, UConn, USF, WVU
FB (West): Baylor, Cincinnati, ISU, Kansas, KSU, Louisville
NFB: DePaul, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John's, Villanova

2013 Big 12
East: Cincinnati, Louisville, Rutgers, UConn, USF, WVU
West: Baylor, Houston, ISU, Kansas, KSU, TCU

2014 Big 12
East: Cincinnati, ISU, UCF, UConn, USF, WVU
West: Baylor, Houston, Kansas, KSU, Navy (FB only), TCU

I wonder how C-USA would replace UCF and Houston. They haven't been raided as extensively as in our timeline, so there is less need to add as many schools as possible. Perhaps this decreased desperation would lead them to stay put at 10. I suppose they could add FAU and/or FIU to get back into Florida.

Any thoughts?

Friend, I think if the Pac 16 of 2010 would have come to fruition the whole landscape would be completely different.

The Pac 16 would have Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Colorado, and either Texas A&M/Baylor/Utah/add'l Big 12 school

The Big Ten is not going to be outdone--they go to 16 as well. Nebraska for sure as #12. The last 4 could be Missouri, Kansas, Iowa St, Maryland, Rutgers, Pitt, Notre Dame, or basically any AAU school they want.

The SEC would follow suit. Texas A&M is a strong possibility and the last 3-4 are likely coming out of the ACC or if somehow the ACC schools resist them maybe WVU, Louisville, & Cincinnati (my money is on an ACC gutting)

The ACC fills any holes it has from the Big East

The Big East, if it's football wing survives at all, consists of Big 12 refugees possibly, maybe some C-USA call ups.

The MWC manages to keep TCU, BYU, and Utah and they grow their brand with the addition of programs like Houston, Boise St, and possibly some Big 12 refugees especially if they look like they are set to weather the storm better than the Big East. They become the nation's clear 5th best conference after the Power 4.