(08-04-2017 04:27 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  While I have nothing against the AAC, its formation/continuation did cause a cascade of realignment that resulted in an almost complete membership turnover of C-USA and the Sun Belt. Could the creation of the AAC could have been averted? Perhaps the announced exodus of WVU, Pitt, and Syracuse is somehow delayed by about a year, by which point Rutgers and Louisville would have secured future homes in the Big Ten and ACC, respectively. By then you'd have at least 75% of the 16 members potentially in favor of dissolving the conference, assuming at least 7 of the 8 Catholic non-football schools are fine with starting up a new "Big East" as in our timeline. Only UConn, Cincy, USF, and possibly ND would be opposed. This could prevent financial penalties for the departing schools, though the legal details are beyond me, and I'm sure some hush money is exchanged in any case. In theory, UConn, Cincy, and USF could still start up a new conference, but I think it would have been a lot harder to do so. Maybe instead they join C-USA or go football independent. Notre Dame likely half-commits to the ACC as in our timeline.

Alternately, perhaps the restocking Big 12 is in a more expansive mood, taking on Cincinnati and Louisville in addition to WVU. Pitt and Syracuse are still bound for the ACC, and Rutgers for the Big Ten. With Louisville taken, the ACC probably taps UConn to replace outgoing Maryland. This leaves USF as the only football member of the Big East. The non-football schools vote to drop football from the conference. USF is picked up by C-USA (either football only or full member, not sure which). Notre Dame makes the same deal with the ACC as it did in our timeline.

In either scenario, C-USA doesn't lose any members and potentially gains at least one Big East survivor. This means no need to prey on the Sun Belt, which in turn has no need to draw additional members from FCS. The WAC is also given a reprieve, but I still think they'll end up dropping football due to having too few members.

Assuming the latter of the two scenarios above takes place, here's what the FBS might look like when all is said and done. Note that I didn't go with a strict geographic alignment for the Big 12. I imagine they might learn a lesson and separate the Texas and Oklahoma schools into different divisions. The Red River Rivalry would of course remain a protected crossover.

ACC
Atlantic: Boston College, Clemson, Connecticut, Florida State, NC State, Syracuse, Wake Forest
Coastal: Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami (FL), North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Big 12
North: Cincinnati, Iowa State, Louisville, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, West Virginia
South: Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech

Big Ten
East: Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers
West: Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Purdue, Wisconsin

Pac-12
North: California, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, Washington, Washington State
South: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, UCLA, USC, Utah

SEC
Eastern: Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Western: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Texas A&M

FBS Independent
Army, BYU, Idaho, Navy, New Mexico State, Notre Dame

C-USA
East: Central Florida, East Carolina, Marshall, Memphis, South Florida, Southern Miss, UAB
West: Houston, Louisiana Tech, Rice, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa, UTEP

MAC
East: Akron, Buffalo, Kent State, Massachusetts, Miami (OH), Ohio, Temple
West: Ball State, Bowling Green, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois, Toledo, Western Michigan

MWC
Mountain: Air Force, Boise State, Colorado State, New Mexico, Utah State, Wyoming
West: Fresno State, Hawaii, Nevada, San Diego State, San Jose State, UNLV

Sun Belt
East: FAU, FIU, Middle Tennessee, South Alabama, Troy, Western Kentucky
West: Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, North Texas, Texas State, UTSA

Any thoughts?

I like this scenario and had things moved faster and the Big 12 been smarter I think it would have worked out very well.

I like that you left Temple and UMass In the MAC. Who knows, they might have caught the expansion itch and looked at ODU & JMU as football affiliates as well.

You need someone to go to C-USA with USF and I see you picked LA Tech. that seems pretty plausible considering their history and strength of program. ECU would probably campaign for Charlotte or ODU but I think with the East getting USF C-USA West would want control of determining #14.

I also see that you went ahead and added UTSA and Texas St to the Sunbelt. What about programs like GA St, Charlotte, and ODU. I could see GA St getting in over Texas St.

Speaking of which, what do you think would happen with programs like GA St, Charlotte, ODU, GA Southern, and Appalachian St? Would these schools still be interested in moving up and taking over control of the WAC (sorry NMSU and Idaho, they only way to stay FBS here is to let the conference footprint shift to the Southeast). That group eventually gets supplemented by JMU, Liberty, and Coastal Carolina. That gives 8 core schools in the new footprint plus Idaho and New Mexico St.