(05-13-2017 02:57 PM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  So I don't think it all that unlikely that ND (Football) ends up joining the ACC. I don't know about the timing of it all, but I think it's probably more likely that something develops that limits the CFP to (Power) Conference champion, which then would eliminate Notre Dame's direct path as an independent. That, coupled by the ACC's desire to make ND a full member probably helps grease the skids of ND football being included with the NBC contract in-tact.

Note that if "something happens" which does that, it won't be a secret or a surprise regarding it's implications for Notre Dame.

It will be "something" which means that Notre Dame gets pushed into a conference, despite a strong preference among many alumni donors that it stays independent.

And that is where we need a little game theory. The Big Ten would be fine with a change that pushes Notre Dame into the Big Ten. The ACC would be fine with a change that pushes Notre Dame into the ACC. The Pac12 would be fine with a change that pushes Notre Dame into the Pac12. But why would the SEC/ACC/Big12/Pac12 want the first? Why would the BigTen/SEC/Big12/Pac12 want the second? Why would the BigTen/ACC/SEC/Big12 want the third?

Changes that push independentS into conferences are fine if a majority of major conferences stand to gain independents that will improve value on a per-school basis. But when it's just one independent in play, it can only join one conference. The other four (or the other three, if one of the five loses key members and drops out of the ranks) do not gain as a result, and would need a very strong offsetting reason to support it.

Quote: Let's also be frank...the present isn't what the past was. FB independence isn't what it used to be; it is now arguably easier to recruit within conferences based off the marquee match-ups inside the conference, the bowl guarantees are better inside the conferences than what the independents can do, and (the clincher)--conference membership is really much more important for the rest of the sports, which means the Conference is in the driver's seat more than it used to be.

This was already true when Notre Dame reached its FB scheduling agreement with the ACC.

Quote:Would Notre Dame athletics be happier associating with the rest of the ACC other than another conference? If so, the ACC could well put the screws to Notre Dame and throw the gauntlet down: join in FB or take your chances elsewhere. The ACC is the best basketball conference and supremely qualified in all the other NCAA sports...except for hockey.

Where this argument falls down is that it skips over the decisive question: whether Notre Dame would prefer independence & membership in it's second available choice for Olympic Sports, or joining the ACC.

And the reason it is not already in the ACC is because the Big12 made a similar Olympic-Sports+FB-scheduling-agreement offer, and the ACC on those terms is preferable. If the ACC "plays hard ball" with a take-it-or-leave-it offer, Notre Dame leaves it, and goes to the Big12 ... who would be over the moon to have such a stabilizing factor added to their conference.

Quote: I don't think this happens this year or even next, but over the long-term? I think it more likely than not that Notre Dame ends up full members of the ACC...and probably THEY (Notre Dame) get to pick who would be "#16."

"Over the long term" depends on the first question ... why everyone other than the ACC have any interest in forcing Notre Dame to join the ACC. I don't see any immediate reason why they do.

Until that changes, and so long as the other FB-scheduling-agreement offer is on the table, there's nothing that would be a big enough force to push Notre Dame out of football independence.

Note that this also fits in with all of the points already made regarding Notre Dame having a full conference share in the ACC network (which has its own rationale, since BBall has more weight in the value of a conference network than in the value of first tier rights, and since if Notre Dame joined the ACC, few if any of its FB games would fall down into the residual rights that the ACCN would enjoy).