In California it's a numbers thing. The UC system nominally takes the top 8% out of High School. But in reality, many are not given access to the majors they want. especially in STEM and are overflowed into a non-declared liberal arts major at the least desired campus (Merced). Most reject such an offer. The actual access rate is lower, closer to the top 5% of the state and the top 2% for STEM slots.

But yes, California is not the bulk of the nation. We have so many high educated people, who's kids are competing for an insufficient number if UC slots. It is what it is. I know in the Midwest the demographics are negative, and they are scrambling to find qualified people for the seats. The opposite issue.

But as for the qualified people for STEM spots, I think it also goes to the lack of credential HS teachers, and the lack of emphasis. It will take decades to build up the domestically developed talent. We also have cultural issues to overcome. We are not demanding enough of our kids in their development academically, and tend to try to be too nice to them. We are lazy and comfortable. How many of you make your teens clean the toilets for example? How many of you insist they play an instrument? How many say it's OK to not bring home at least a 3.5 report card? How many do not send your kids to prep for SAT? How many of us let them play video games without having gone over their entire homework set with you? We all complain about how much more competitive the market is, but we do little or nothing to prepare our kids.

But I think throwing in the towel and saying there are not enough to fill the slots is being a surrender monkey. We have not even made an effort to fill the slots.