(12-06-2019 08:12 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  

(12-06-2019 04:33 PM)mrbig Wrote:  

(12-06-2019 11:57 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  266K new jobs, more than experts expected
Unemployment down again to 3.5%.
I bet there are those in the upper levels of the DNC saying "Will this NEVER end?

Job growth under Trump has been virtually identical to job growth under Obama (outside of Obama's first 2 years coming out of the recession). I'm sure you know this, so I don't understand your point. The economy is cyclical and presidents get too much credit and too much blame, plus there is a lag factor after a law passes. I guess it is politically good for Trump that things haven't changed or fallen apart since his election. But I'm not convinced the people who were hurting in 2016 when he was elected have seen the economy improve in ways that have benefited them.
Without looking it up, pick out the Obama or Trump years. This is average job growth per month for each calendar year starting with 2012, but ordered from highest to lowest rather than chronologically:
250,500
227,417
223,250
193,167
191,833
181,167
179,727
179,417
I'm not going to make the point that job growth was better under Obama or Trump. My point is that regardless of which measure you use, there hasn't been a significant change in job growth over the last 8.8 years.

Job growth was easy for Obama after 2009. As you note, the economy is cyclical. Coming out of a recession, we SHOULD have rapid job growth. If anything, the policies pursued by Obama probably slowed what would otherwise have been white-hot job growth. That may in fact have helped Trump, because it may have made the growth somewhat easier to sustain. Bottom line, we are entering unprecedented territory with job growth and low levels of unemployment. The economy turned around under Obama, as it would have done under any president, or even no president at all. Sustaining that turnaround is a remarkable achievement.

My worry is that we are in uncharted waters now, and things could turn around at a moment's notice. If it does before Novermber 2020, that could result in a democrat sweep in the next election. To me, that would be the worst possible result. I am well aware that Trump has a lot of negatives, and would be wary of his second term, although not as worried as I would be about any of the collectivist/socialist/communist democrats taking over (and that seems to be all they have these days). I wouldn't mind somebody like President Bill Clinton, although I don't want the Bill of today, because he seems to have swung hard left like the rest of the party.

There are lots of good indicators now. Higher wages. More workers. More growth. Lowest black unemployment ever. Lowest Hispanic unemployment ever. Lowest Asian unemployment ever. Cheap gas. Lower taxes. More construction. Stock market up. Hard to find a bad indicator.

But whoever, or whatever, you want to give credit for all this, one thing is sure.

The policies espoused by every Democratic candidate will make it worse. Some a little worse. Most of them, a lot worse.

Best for them if there is a recession first. Then they can not only claim to be trying to overcome Trump’s policies, but they can claim their failures as due to him. It’s all about controlling the narrative. Take the credit, deserved or not.

So that is part of the reason the Dem leadership wants economic chaos. Like the fireman who sets fires so he can be a hero, they want to be heroes too. Like Obama.

I like being financially secure. A lot more than I like leaders that speak well, but have little else of substance.

There are two or three people I would likely vote for over Trump. None of them are running for the Democratic nomination. But I hope they are around for 2024.