(10-06-2017 07:52 AM)Eldonabe Wrote:  

(10-05-2017 09:26 PM)Steve1981 Wrote:  Think the Big East will have a TV contract dollar cut for the 2027. At that point, it could make since for the BE to expand from 10 teams and TV will sure to let them know. That said, think there is a better chance the BE will raid the A10 then the MAC.

The MAC contract is also up in 2027 along with the Big12.

Can UMass be in a better place in 8 years? It's hard to believe we could be in a worst situation. We can schedule, so it's up to recruiting and coaching. The IPF will help recruiting and the next HC decision will be critical. Three to 8 years is a long time for us to get our stuff together.

Do you know how much different the landscape will be by 2027? If the BE waits until then, they might not even be a viable conference anymore. D-Day is coming for all the money-grubbing P conferences and it will happen way before 2027.

Greed is good, greed works, it clarifies...... until the bubble bursts. When that ultimately happens, Greed [unfortunately] will be the reason.

A few thoughts.

First, the current Fox-Big East deal ends after the 2024-25 season. So they'll be in a new contract or contract extension for the 2025-26 season.

Second, the Big East clearly benefited from good timing on its current deal. Fox was launching FS1 and had no significant winter sports rights. While the old Big East was burdened with a right of first refusal by ESPN, the C7 schools had negotiated a pre-nup with the football schools back in 2004 that gave them the opportunity to walk on fair terms. That opened the door for them to negotiate with Fox at a time when Fox was pretty much desperate to find some quality programming to fill their winter schedule, a truly unique opportunity. As a result, they probably got more than they might have in a more typical bidding environment. As a wild guess, I would estimate that they got something like a 30% markup ($10 million+/- extra per year) due to Fox's predicament.

Finally, despite all the "chicken little" talk about the sports rights bubble, just over a year ago, the NCAA negotiated an 8 year extension of the TV deal for the NCAA Tournament. The existing contract (14 year, $10.8 billion, $770 million/year) was scheduled to expire in 2024. 8 years were added for an additional $8.8 billion ($1.1 billion/year). This tells me that, despite ongoing changes in the TV ecosystem, distributors expect sports rights to maintain a high value in the future and that the opportunity to monetize that value will continue to be available.