(08-15-2015 04:18 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Seattle sure used up a lot of the magic in their no hitter the other day...

last 2 games- the Mariners have given up 47 hits. Today King Felix was anything but a King- he gave up 10 runs and 12 hits in 2.1 innings pitched. His 3.65 ERA is worst since 2007- and over 1.5 runs worse than last year. His 3.52 FIP is the worst since 2008.

I honestly do not know what to make of his numbers. Firstly, I want to state that I think last year he might've been a bit lucky. Here are all his relevant numbers (from Fangraphs):

K/9
2012- 8.65
2013- 9.51
2014- 9.46
2015- 8.65

BB/9
2012- 2.17
2013- 2.03
2014- 1.75
2015- 2.53

BABIP
2012- .308
2013- .313
2014- .258
2015- .301

HR/9
2012- .54
2013- .66
2014- .61
2015- .94

LOB %
2012- 75%
2013- 75.1%
2014- 77%
2015- 76.1%

GB %
2012- 48.9
2013- 51.4
2014- 56.2
2015- 56.2

FB %
2012- 28.6
2013- 27.2
2014- 26.3
2015- 25.2

LD %
2012- 22.5
2013- 21.4
2014- 17.5
2015- 18.4

IFFB %
2012- 10.4
2013- 8.7
2014- 5.7
2015- 9.6

HR/FB %
2012- 7.7
2013- 10.0
2014- 10.1
2015- 14.5

Soft/Medium/Hard hit %
2012- 15.0%/57.4%/27.6%
2013- 13.3%/53.2 %/33.5%
2014- 17.5%/56.3%/26.3 %
2015- 19.6%/54.5%/25.8 %

Fastball velocity
2012- 92.4
2013- 91.3
2014- 92.5
2015- 92.1

ERA/FIP/xFIP/WAR
2012- 3.06/2.84 /3.20 /6.1
2013- 3.04/2.61/2.66/5.7
2014- 2.14/2.56 /2.51 /6.0
2015- 3.65/3.52/3.18 /2.8 (WAR not updated)

Batted Ball Distance for HR and Flyballs
2012- 273.35
2013- 285.63
2014- 292.81
2015- 271.55

Opponents plate discipline- The swing and contact rates aren't as good as last year, but they're nearly identical to 2012, as are many of his other numbers. I'm having a bit of a hard time seeing a clear decline. I wonder if he's had a bit of bad luck on HR allowed and if the Mariners infield defense has declined. It will be very interesting to see what his numbers look like next year. FWIW, his WAR numbers on BR seem to better match up with his raw statistics:
2012- 4.7
2013- 5.2
2014- 6.8
2015- 3.9

What do you think?