(06-19-2015 11:48 PM)stever20 Wrote:  The WAR i'm seeing is 0.8 for him so far...

The number to me that is big with him is he's giving up 1 fewer hit per 9 innings.

the other thing that is better for him this year are his slash lines against...
2011 .222/.302/.344/.646
2012 .257/.341/.426/.767
2013 .248/.322/.389/.711
2014 .258/.332/441/.772
2015 .237/.325/.367/.691

His ops is down .081 from last year. Have to remember last year he gave up 30 doubles/11 triples/19 homers. So far this year in a smidge less than half the PA's(310 vs 673) he's given up 20 extra base hits total(12/1/7). So I wouldn't say most of his numbers are worse than last year at all.

Realistically he should be like a 5th starter who would go into the pen for the playoffs. If you look at him in those eyes- he's not done too bad at all. You could do a LOT worse than what he has given you guys so far.

Bottom line- he's definitely not in the same realm as Cain/Peavy/Hudson. Those are the guys that have killed you, not Lincecum.

Let's see how he ends the year. Sure he's given up fewer XBH, but do you really believe that's the result of better pitching? What in his peripherals would lead you to believe that he's really a different pitcher? I feel like more BB, fewer K's and a slower fastball can't possibly bode well for the rest of the season, unless he greatly improves his command, which he hasn't. If you want to cite his decreased line drive rate and increased fly ball rate, I won't argue as that's obviously preferable in our park. In the end, you're absolutely right, he's been better than Hudson and Vogelsong, but his return on the team's investment is nowhere near equal to the $17 million. My point is that they're hardly getting good value on their money.

And as usual our discrepancy comes from me using Fangraphs. I prefer it to BR because it calculates pitcher WAR based on expected results (FIP) rather than actual results (ERA). And if you look at Lincecum's peripherals and actually watch him pitch, you see a guy who is no better than the last few years, regardless of the results.