(07-06-2016 01:48 PM)GoodOwl Wrote:  

(01-15-2015 08:02 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(01-15-2015 07:51 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(01-15-2015 07:42 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  So I actually did a quick trend analysis.

Since the '09 season (6 years of data), which one could argue was on Graham for gutting the recruiting class we would have relied on that year, we have a positive, linear trend in games won. The r-squared value is 0.80, which is an insanely high r-squared value for real world data. If we go less than 9-3 next year, we hurt this argument and it becomes a less defined trend, but anything 9-3 and above keeps us moving upwards.

There is no question that, based on the number of games won, we are still on a very significant, upward trajectory. Whether we can maintain it is the question.

But that's based entirely on starting with the 2009 season? Why not start with 2007, when the DBD began? Or if you start with our winning 2010 season, which was the first with Bailiff recruits playing a major role (even if our upperclass leaders and stars were not recruited by him), you'd get a very different result. In reality, we have been on a bit of a rollercoaster ride with Bailiff as head coach, with the only consistency being our inability to beat or compete with Top 75 teams.

I explained my reason, but here you go:

2007-present: low r-squared of 0.11. But the 2008 record is an obvious statistical outlier. When it is removed, it gets bumped to a healthy 0.75.

2010-present: Still a very healthy 0.76 r-squared value.

In reality, from a record stand point, we haven't been on a roller coaster, but a pretty slow and steady climb. That '08 season was an anomaly, both statistically and actually. Bailiff was the coach that season, but we all pretty much agree that we were helmed by one of our best QBs of all time and two of our best WRs of all time.

edit: We talk one here about a recent, upward trend with regard to winning, and often point to 2012 as when that started, the first year since '08 without a losing record. But if you look at our win totals, this past year is the first year since '09 where DB and co. have won less games than the year before. Competition has changed (but if I remember, the average rating of teams played actually hasn't moved much) but if we are talking about trends, it's pretty darn clear, IMO, where we are RIGHT NOW. Next year will help define the picture even more.

Just wondering how last season's record altered the two trendline analyses you did previously?

Don't keep those graphs, but I can almost definitely say that it did not help increase that value.