(01-20-2015 05:17 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(01-20-2015 04:36 PM)GoodOwl Wrote:  My thought on the above picrig data is that if you only look at the last three years, then it looks like we are on track with the current coaching staff, but if you look at what Boise and TCU actually did to get their present status, Rice and the present coaching staff are still woefully behind.

Perhaps this explains the gut feelings of myself and others (Walt in particular) that the needle has only wavered a bit and not actually moved yet for Rice in these past 8 years. Transformation vs Incrementalism. Problem: it can be construed to appear time is of the essence.

And, again, it's not simply our woefull W - L record against Top 75 opponents, but our inability to even compete against teams ranked only in the Top 50 (let alone the Top 25). Many of those programs listed above who have similarly poor records against the Top 50 have played much more competitively in those games than we have during the DBD.

(01-20-2015 04:05 PM)picrig Wrote:  TCU and Boise numbers for the last 10 years.

Team/T20/T50/T75/75+

Boise/7-7/10-5/19-6/78-1
TCU/7-14/21-9/16-2/56-3

(01-15-2015 09:45 AM)picrig Wrote:  1. These teams basically don't beat top 20 teams.
{GO edit- but both Boise and TCU DID beat Top 25 teams to get to where they are now (perception for Boise, P5 conference and Top 3 status for TCU. Record against Top20 listed is 14-21 = 40% of time they beat a Top20 team (near to my previously stated suggestion of beating ranked teams we play half the time)}

2. Nor do they play top 20 teams (average of 0.47/year).
{Again, this is NOT true for what both TCU and Boise did to get where they are. (average of 3.5 games per year against Top 20 teams)}

3. They really don't beat top 50 teams very much, either.
{Again, NOT true for both Boise and TCU.}

4. If you take out Boise St. and UCF (the teams w/the best resumes on the list) and just leave the other 8, record against T50 is 5-40 (11%).
For Boise and TCU the record against T50 is 31-14 (68.89%)

5. So if we win our next game against the top 50, we'll be right on that average:-p.
{We would be on average with the teams that are still nobodys. We would still be far below what Boise and TCU did to get where they are.}