(05-09-2014 11:37 PM)RustonCAT Wrote:  

(05-09-2014 11:32 PM)ark30inf Wrote:  

(05-09-2014 11:28 PM)RustonCAT Wrote:  If you really think stAte and ULL can't go anywhere your a moron

I think you'll find about 99% of people are morons then.

But I'll play along. Where exactly could we go if we handed in our exit papers to the SBC?

Not one program that has left the belt is better than the top 3 schools still here! Blindly leaving the sun belt hoping to be picked up would be stupid. We all know Mac will expand, AAC will expand, CUSA Will expand again.

Just have to wait our turn. CUSA and AAC have learned the false market BS lesson with both about to get less than Grand TV deals

You arguing with yourself now? You advocate leaving then point out you have to have an invite.

No we don't know that the MAC will expand. The CFP revenue share model constrains expansion. For the MAC to go to 14 members the two new members have to bring $1.2 million each in new revenue to make expansion worthwhile.

No we don't know that CUSA will expand. If C-USA can hold its current TV dollars after 2015-16 and that isn't a given, adding two more would mean the new members have to bring $2 million each to the table to be revenue neutral and with the C-USA tournament shares likely to fall, the odds are against C-USA distributing as much to members in 2016-17 as 2015-16. An organization with declining revenues expands for only one reason, to gain admission fee revenue (see WFL, ABA, WHA, NASL who all did ill-conceived expansions to gain operating revenue via entry fees). It is more likely that C-USA destabilizes because of falling revenue than adds members.

No we don't know that AAC will expand either. They have the second best TV deal outside of the P5 (Big East's is about double per team, BUT FOOTBALL DRIVES THE BUS!). They've made a nice start gaining NCAA units. There are very few schools that can move the needle.