(01-15-2016 01:10 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(01-15-2016 12:40 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-15-2016 12:29 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  Let's say everything gets started only when the Big 12 GOR is up. What do you see? Under those conditions I'll make these predictions:

Oklahoma and Oklahoma State to the SEC

Kansas and UConn to the B1G

Texas gets a sweetheart deal with the ACC. The ACC GOR isn't extended though because several schools know they can get a better deal in a new conference before much longer.

PAC stays put

Everyone else gets stuck in a leftover conference.

Then the ACC GOR is up a couple of years later...

Texas and Notre Dame decide to build a league with which they can affiliate, but not join in full.

Florida State, Clemson, NC State, and Virginia Tech move to the SEC

North Carolina, Duke, Virginia, and Georgia Tech move to the B1G

A leftover league emerges...

West: Iowa State, Kansas State, BYU, TCU, Baylor, Texas Tech
South: Houston, Memphis, Louisville, Miami, UCF, Wake Forest
North: Boston College, Syracuse, Temple, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Cincinnati

Texas and Notre Dame affiliate with this league and are obligated to play, say, 4 football games within the league every season.

A 3 x 20 is possible. I'm not sure if that many top brands are spread among the Big 10 and SEC that a 4th conference forms after the expiration of a GOR. Now prior to that it most certainly would be a condition of early departure.

But should we go to a 3 x 20 what you suggest is plausible IMO.

My only contention with a 3x20 is I don't see enough strong brands in the Big 12 that would be palatable to the PAC. They would take OU and UT and probably a couple more, I don't doubt it. Would those brands even go to the PAC in the first place though? I don't see both the SEC and B1G turning down OU, UT, and KU.

I suppose there is a chance that OU, UT, and KU will want to move together to the PAC and take a few with them, but I think 8 is stretching it from the PAC's perspective. I don't see them assisting in the dissolution of the Big 12 to that degree. Apparently they weren't willing to do it last time so I'm not sure if anything has really changed from their perspective.

Maybe this?

UT, TT, OU, OSU, KU, and KSU or ISU head to the PAC

SEC takes FSU, Clemson, NC State, and VT. Perhaps then the SEC takes the combo of WVU and Pitt as I think they would be stronger together. It cements the SEC as a player in Metro DC as well as Western PA.

The Big Ten takes UNC, Duke, UVA, and Georgia Tech. Perhaps then they follow that up with Syracuse and UConn?

20, 20, and 18 with only a handful of schools left out. Not too many left behind for a decent leftover league though.

Miami, Louisville, Wake Forest, Boston College from the ACC
Baylor, TCU, KSU or ISU from the Big 12

Maybe throw in Houston, Memphis, Cincinnati, BYU, and one other for a halfway decent league. Not sure if Notre Dame would affiliate with that league or not. I suppose so.

You have to look at what 8 Big 12 schools do for the PAC:

It gives them a strong contingent of central time zone slots. That right there is worth oodles to the PAC. The only reason this hasn't happened is because no network owns a % of the PACN and therefore the move can't be monetized in a way that makes it profitable for either the PAC or the Big 12 schools involved. When a major network acquires rights then the money will be there.

Plus look what balance it would bring to the PAC:

Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, Washington, Washington State

Arizona, Arizona State, California, Cal Los Angeles, Southern Cal

Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State

Colorado, Texas, T.C.U., Texas Tech, Utah