Quote:You'll see how "fluid" it is in November when Romney/Rubio gets their hat handed to them worse than Goldwater.

Only one president in the last 100 years won with an unemployment rate in the Obama range. Obama's current approval rating is 41% CBS news, and 47% Fox News (but of course we know Fox lies ).

His big problem is Independent Voters. If he splits the independents he loses. His approval rating will need to exceed 50% among likely voters just to win reelection. In the last election he won a large amount of independents. Traditionally, independents tend to swing away from the incumbent in midterms and 2nd terms, which is what we saw in 2010. As seen in the Pew Research, Independents tend to lean more towards Republicans when the economy and foreign policy are the key issues, which will be the case in this election. His negatives on his handling of the economy approach 70% in some polls.

Pew Research

Quote:When asked which party comes closer to their views on major issues, independent voters prefer Republicans on foreign policy and economic issues but are more divided on social issues. More say the Republican Party comes closer to their views on foreign policy and national security (by 44% to 30%), but the GOP’s lead is more modest on economic issues (43% to 34%). And slightly more independents say the Democratic Party (39%) rather than the Republican Party (33%) better reflects their views on social issues such as gay marriage and abortion. In this regard, more than twice as many independent voters than Republican voters favor allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally (45% vs. 20%).