(01-16-2023 11:55 AM)Stammers Wrote:  

(01-15-2023 01:32 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(01-15-2023 01:07 PM)msu35 Wrote:  

(01-15-2023 01:04 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  So, we lose an away game and our net improves by 9 spots.

As with all analytic systems for basketball, it's a push/pull dynamic. Our rating is influenced by not only our games but also our opponents. We could go down even if we won a game, which has already happened this year, therefore it's highly possible and even likely that we could go up after a loss.

I get that. About 14 years ago I wrote an RPI calculator program that would live game results and generate rpi's for the teams in real time. So I could see how the different metrics played out.

And NET has the RPI component in it. But its got some other special sauce in it as well. And some of that special sauce doesnt make sense.

To demonstrate how screwed the NET is as compared to the RPI, Ohio St's NET currently sits at 21. You look at number, and wonder how the hell that is even possible, when the following is also true:

1. They have no quad 3 wins, because they stuffed their schedule with Quad 4 teams

2. They lost to a quad 4 team AT HOME

3. Their non-conference schedule is #204 and their overall sos is 77. Quite ugly.

4. They have a single road win.

5. They are sitting at 10-6

6. Their RPI is 94


The RPI over-punishes for losing at home to extremely great teams. Which is one of its flaws. (The other is rewarding away wins against crappy teams.) But for its flaw, it appears they jacked with some calcs in the NET that overcompensates to the ridiculous degree. While Ohio St is not the #94 team as the RPI says, they are also nowhere near the #21 the NET seems to think they are.

Creighton's is even worse...

24 CREIGHTON 9-8
Q1: 1-6
Q2: 3-1
Q3: 2-1
Q4: 4-0

46 MEMPHIS 13-5
Q1: 1-2
Q2: 3-3
Q3: 5-0
Q4: 4-0

Q1 - Q2
4-7 CREIGHTON
4-5 MEMPHIS

Q1 - Q3
6-8 CREIGHTON
9-5 MEMPHIS

Q3 - Q4
6-1 CREIGHTON
9-0 MEMPHIS

The only reasonable conclusion is as I suggested. The "secret" component with the NET is that it gives disproportionate weight to the pure number of Q1 games. There is no other

I'm going to be a dissenting voice and throw a spanner in the works. Take a look at the margin of victory. It has to play a significant role in the calculations. This year, we've been unable to "blow" teams out to the degree the aforementioned teams have, and our rating has suffered.