There are a lot of theories on this board regarding the Pac-12 expansion discussion that are not realistic. I will lay it out in a realistic way and give options as to their path forward.

To begin with, the corner four schools will not be going to the Big 12. Unless the B1G expands (at this point unlikely), Arizona and co. and are not going anywhere.

So here are the four likely scenarios:

1. The Pac-12 stands pat at 10.

Expanding does not make sense financially, and the league decides to stand pat. Cal and Stanford scoff at adding Gonzaga.

2. The Pac-12 adds Gonzaga for Olympic sports.

With the CFP expanding to 12, there is no imminent need to expand to 12 to keep up with the Joneses. However, the league is going to drop to the clear #6 power conference in basketball. Replacing UCLA's basketball brand will not be accomplished by one move, but adding Gonzaga is as close as it gets out west. If the money is right, it could be possible. It also allows the league to go back to a 20-game conference schedule to keep up with the other power leagues.

3. The Pac-12 adds SDSU and SMU.

Losing UCLA and USC will hurt recruiting in Southern California. SDSU fills a need. Adding SMU gets the league into the central time zone which could be crucial for television. If both schools take a reduced share and the money works, even if Cal and Stanford hold their noses, the league will add the aforementioned schools. Having 12 also helps give an appearance of stability and increases the odds of having multiple teams in the playoff. To me, no other programs fit the needs of the league as good as these two, and I see no reasonable way the Pac-12 expands to 14.

4. The Pac-12 adds Gonzaga for Olympic sports AND SDSU and SMU.

Best of both worlds if the money is right: SDSU and Gonzaga are both good in basketball giving the league a major boost there. On the football side, the league will avoid the psychological disadvantage of having only 10 schools (something the Big 12 faced for a decade and decided to rectify by expanding to 12 instead of back to 10).

To me, these are the only four realistic scenarios at this point. Which one do you think will happen?