(05-13-2022 11:12 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  I agree, but in this case, there actually doesnt have to be any settlement negotiated at all. The "settlement" is the control and ownership of the TV rights themselves. Oklahoma and UT could leave without a settlement and the penalty would simply be that the Big12 would continue to own the rights for Texas and Oklahoma home games.

The truth is, the SEC would add 4 valuable UT conference away games and 4 Oklahoma conference away games. The Big12 would maintain control of all UT and OK home games. This is where it gets interesting. ESPN and FOX could not cut the Big12 deal because ESPN and FOX are still receiving all the rights those networks contracted for originally (plus they are additionally getting BYU, UH, UC, and UCF games from 2023 on). The SEC will be adding some interesting UT/OK matchups---even though they wont get any home games from those schools. The problem is UT/OK would no longer be getting a share of Big12 revenue.

Now the bottom line. ESPN owns half of the rights the Big12, all the rights to LHN, and, will soon own all the rights to the SEC. So, basically, it doesnt really matter to ESPN. They will get all the rights to any UT/OK SEC away games, half the rights to any UT/OK home games (split with FOX), and any rights to UT 3rd tier home games. ESPN will only lose access to half of Oklahoma's home games (same as the current arrangement) and slightly less than half of UT's home games (1 game less than half because they have the rights to the UT 3rd tier game--which is the same as the current arrangement). The problem is the SEC wont get the full benefit of the new additions until 2025---but they will get some benefit (away games and all the LHN content for the SEC Network)---thus Im guessing the SEC can simply negotiate a reduced payout deal for UT/OK that (that pays as much or more than the current Big12 deal) and lasts until the the full UT/OK rights roll over to the SEC.

That would allow UT/OK to move to the SEC in 2023----paying only a Big-12 exit fee (probably around 70 million each) and nothing more. There would be no need to successfully reach a GOR settlement for the move to happen. The Big 12 hanging onto UT/OK TV rights for a few years is actually fairly manageable due to the current way the tv rights ownership has shaken out among the networks. The odd outcome is that FOX will find itself owning a handful of high end SEC games for a couple of years. The point is, UT/OK dont necessarily have to come to a GOR settlement with the Big12 to move early. They could potentially work out a deal with the SEC for a reduced payout in those first few years and leave the Big12 whenever they wish paying just the base exit fee (which is the same in 2023 as it would be in 2025).

There is a precedent in an earlier era but with much less money on the line. When Penn State joined the B1G, their TV rights were still under the CFA TV contract. So, the B1G did not have the rights to Penn State home games for the first two years they were in the conference. They would play a home conference game as part of "CFA College Football on ABC".