(09-20-2021 01:28 PM)OrangeDude Wrote: After over a 2 year hiatus, I am back for now. For those wondering why I left it had to do with the passing of my partner/husband from pancreatic cancer. I have kept reading this board and the syracusefan board but decided not to post. Syracuse crapping the bed in football the past three years sort of made it easier to avoid posting as well.
Anyway back to the main topic of this post. Where is realignment heading? I will begin by tipping my hat to JR whose past posts have now shown he has had the most insight as to where it's going, imho. Ultimately he put forth the notion that there would be 40 to 48 teams with either two leagues or perhaps one super league.
As a Syracuse fan it gives me no pleasure to say this, but my Orange will likely not make the cut. Using the lower end of 40 to 48 teams, I suspect the two league model will likely result in Clemson, FSU, UNC, and UVA to the SEC to get to 20 and USC, UCLA, Oregon, Washington (and 2 of Notre Dame, Kansas, Stanford and Arizona) to get the Big 10 to 20. Notre Dame's independence will need to end once the new model is implemented if they wish to compete at the sports highest levels. This new model will also likely result (as JR and others have been saying for a while) in a separation from the NCAA for at the very least major college football - I am uncertain if it will apply to basketball at all.
The remaining ACC and remaining PAC/Big 12 (combined) will likely re-invent themselves along 12 or 16 team models whose games will comprise the next level down college football.
Those are my thoughts. Hope I am proven wrong.
Cheers,
Neil
Sorry for your loss. My mother just died after having dementia for 6 years. It's a life changing event.
JRSEC has been the most prescient with his predictions but I think we're looking at 3 leagues of 20 not 2 of 20 or 24.
Specifically, the B1G goes the academic route with Kansas, UVA, UNC, Duke, GT and maybe Miami. Miami's not really a B1G type school but they do want to get into Florida.
The SEC adds FSU, Clemson, NCST and VT and breaks down into nice 5-team divisions.
Fla, FSU, UGA, Clemson, USC
NCST, VT, Ken, Tenn, Vandy
Ala, Aub, Miss, Miss St, LSU
Tex, A&M, OKL, Ark, Mizzou
The Pac 12 adds 8 to get to 20 all from the Big 12/14/16 whatever it's called then.
But none of that happens until the ACC GoR expires. So 2037 at the earliest.
The remaining schools will still have to deal with NIL, P4P, unlimited stipends, etc. but their athletes will still be students. The break away league will be full P4P with athletes as employees and not students.
Will the break away league keep the NCAA for all other sports? Probably. There's no need to re-invent the wheel when there's already an organization to take care of all that stuff.
Does the Break away league take the NCAA basketball tournament with them or allow the NCAA to continue to fund operations with a large share of the proceeds from the tournament? Clearly the B1G would be interested after picking up 3 blue bloods and UVA but I think they get out voted. A main attraction of the NCAA tournament is the upsets and Cinderella teams. You need all the small conferences to get max value out of the NCAA tournament. A tournament with 10 conferences wouldn't be the same.
