Now, that the Big 12 has officially expanded, here are my thoughts on the next dominoes falling.

I'm going to start with the Mountain West because I think they are going to make a pre-emptive strike on....C-USA for Rice and UTEP. I don't think the AAC or MW will be trading members but I do think the media package will be better for the MW this time around so the MW grabs Rice and UTEP before the AAC does. I also think Gonzaga realizes it needs to prepare for the future post-Few and gets into the MW as an Olympic sports member to balance Hawaii. The Mountain West becomes the de-facto #6 conference.

West: Utah State, Nevada, Hawaii, UNLV, SDSU, SJSU, Fresno State
Mountain: Rice, UTEP, Boise State, AFA, CSU, Wyoming, New Mexico

At this point, Navy has two options: stay in the AAC or go back to being independent. With the conference losing its major brands, the MW nabbing Rice and UTEP, and there being more independents than last time, Navy moves back to being independent.

The AAC wants to get back into Texas for a 2nd school, but SMU blocks North Texas and UTSA and Texas State don't have the brand necessary so the conference goes in another direction to get to 10 schools.


Louisiana's re-brand catapults the school into the pool of the invited alongside UAB and Marshall.

West: SMU, Tulsa, Tulane, Memphis, Louisiana
East: UAB, Marshall, ECU, USF, Temple

The MAC looks around the landscape and stands pat.

C-USA is next up. With 4 defections, the conference is down to 10 schools. It will look to rip the band-aid off the Sun Belt (now down to 9 schools). It invites Appalachian State and Coastal Carolina to get to 12.

West: North Texas, Louisiana Tech, UTSA, MTSU, WKU, Southern Miss
East: ODU, Charlotte, FAU, FIU, App State, Coastal Carolina

Finally, the Sun Belt is up. Down to 7 schools, desperate times call for desperate measures. They invite NMSU, Liberty, and FCS James Madison to get to 10 football schools, and they cut UT-Arlington and Little Rock loose as Olympic members.

The remaining independents include Notre Dame, Navy, Army, UConn, and UMass. The latter four schedule each other yearly going forward.