(09-14-2021 11:14 AM)Crayton Wrote:  

(09-14-2021 09:51 AM)Jared7 Wrote:  

(09-14-2021 09:47 AM)Crayton Wrote:  

(09-14-2021 09:36 AM)Jared7 Wrote:  No, the bylaws say that withholdings start immediately after the Notice of Withdrawal was given which commences the Interim Period. That is set to last for 4 years and it's $160 million per school. Blatantly misrepresenting what the bylaws actually say is par for the course for UT, who blatantly breached a 99-year commitment and is now trying to get out of paying what they owe. And if they leave 3 years early, it'll be whatever they earn in the SEC; which would mean much more than $160 million each.

The withholding begins immediately, for good reason, but the maximum sum that will be withheld is still 2 years.

The GOR is a different beast; best guess now is that they'll still get paid through the Big 12 contract (playing SEC teams), and the SEC will gain their rights in 2025.

What provision in the bylaws says that? The Interim Period commences and withholdings last until actual withdrawal. That's 4 years - not 2. Is Florida a party to this contract? Is the SEC? The GOR component will be more than $40 million per year (each). Best guess now is that UT and OU will owe much more than the $160 million they already owe.

"Withhold" means the money actually belongs to Texas, but is kept in anticipation of being payed something, in this case: exit fees. Exit fees are equal to 2 years worth of media payouts. The Big 12 cannot withhold more than the exit fees. Naturally, the Big 12 should not wait until 2023 to start withholding and should start immediately, because as we see exit dates can change and it is better to get the money up front than to risk being stiffed later.

There is no mechanism (currently) by which Texas can retrieve their media rights; the Big 12 owns them. Texas, if they start play in the SEC before 2025, cannot give those rights to the SEC; the Big 12 owns them. BUT, because the Big 12 is still selling Texas home games to their media partners, they are also still paying Texas for those rights (subject to the withholding mentioned above).

Now, if Texas wants their media rights to be packaged with the SEC contract (and receive the larger payout that comes with it), they can TRY and buy them back from the Big 12. But the price may be prohibitive because estimates have the price as almost a quarter of the Big 12's existing media value.

The SEC's media value won't increase appreciably until they have those rights; 8 OUT games in other SEC stadiums will be roughly equal to the 8 teams sent to OUT stadiums. So, Texas won't see a revenue increase (maybe bowl payments? a nominal cut of the CCG money?) until their rights are transferred, likely in 2025.

I tend to agree. IMO, the bylaws seem to contemplate two year's worth of withholdings as the buyout amount. The bylaws seem to call the "interim period" between notice and effective withdrawal as basically a two-year period. The logic seems to be - buyout amount is value of final two year's distribution, school gives notice two years in advance, buyout fee is withheld for those two years to pay off the buyout at the time the school exits.

It is fuzzy though because they also say that the moment you give notice, you don't collect any more distributions. The bylaws seem to assume that notice would be given two years in advance. They don't seem to have contemplated a school giving four year's notice.

I suspect it will end up being two year's worth of distribution, because otherwise, if say Kansas State were to "give notice" that they intend to leave in 2035, the L12 could seemingly withhold payment to them for the next 14 years, which IMO is nonsensical and could not survive in court. I suspect TX and OU will maintain that in July they "gave notice that they will give notice" in July 2023 and if the L12 challenges that and says it is withholding all four years, then we end up in court. I think the L12 will lose that, as it doesn't pass the smell test (e.g. K-State hypothetical) and it would seem that it benefits a conference to know sooner rather than later than a school is leaving, so there's no real grounds for withholding for longer periods, that seems punitive. E.g., in this case, the early notice has allowed the L8 to make plans and expand with new members now, to become an L12. Better that it have that information now than in 2023, I would say.

FWIW, I expect a deal to be reached for them to leave sooner than 2025, probably 2023. What the dollars will be, I don't know. I suspect it will be about $80m - $100m each, but we shall see.