(09-14-2021 11:45 AM)Troy_Fan_15 Wrote:  

(09-14-2021 11:33 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  

(09-13-2021 04:15 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(09-13-2021 08:05 AM)esayem Wrote:  It’s really simple:

The larger the conference, the less percentage of a chance a team has to win.

The percentage is already low for a current G5 to make the expanded playoffs by winning their league and being a top six champ.

The percentage is pretty low to garner an at-large with bloated P5 conferences eating all those up.

The best bet is to be in a smaller conference, win that, and hope you’re the sixth best champ. Some years it may be possible for the current G5’s to be 5/6, but that goes out the window if the conferences are too big and the best two G5 teams are in the same league. Think about it.

Still have to be the top G5 champ for it to mean anything. Essentially, the access bowl now---and eventually the 12 team CFP---treat the G5 as one giant conference with 5 divisions. Thus---its still essentially a 1 in 65 chance of having your season really matter no matter how you split the G5 conferences.

Some conferences are better than others. Saying 1 in 65 is like saying that an SEC team has the same odds as a PAC-12 team of making the playoffs. Winning some conferences is better than winning others.

Yeah but if the SEC lost Alabama, Georgia, Florida, and people knew that Auburn and LSU wanted out it wouldn't be near as attractive. Same if B1G lost Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State and people knew that Wisconsin and Michigan State wanted out.

How large an advantage the AAC will come down to who they add and how much they salvage in TV revenue.

Not the best comparison as the best team in the AAC has fluctuated more year in and out than the best team in the SEC, and we all know that Alabama (like Texas in the Big 12) represents a ridiculously large share of the total conference value. Houston might be 1.5x the value of Tulsa, but they weren't 60% of the total conference media value like Texas is with the Big 12.

In the years since the AAC was formed, the top team has been the top team in the G5 in all year but one, no matter which team it is.

I also think there is value in being in the "P5 waiting room" conference. Obviously no way to really know, but I think Boise probably would have had a better shot at being in the Big 12 invite group had they followed through and joined the AAC back in 2014.