With the news that BYU has become a serious front-runner, and the fact that there will be serious discussion regarding Houston (whether pro or against in the Big 12 circles-think other Texas schools), I now think the Big 12 will expand by 4.

I believe they will add 4 schools: BYU, Cincy, Houston, and UCF (who gets the last spot over Memphis).

Big 12:
East: WVU, Cincy, UCF, Iowa State, Houston, Baylor
West: BYU, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas Tech

This raiding of the AAC will lead to the MW becoming the de-facto #6 conference. The MW will want to eliminate any chance the AAC has of usurping the former, so they will poach two schools: SMU and Memphis.
It will be a geographic stretch for Memphis but better than remaining in the
AAC (especially basketball-wise).

As an aside, Gonzaga sees the writing on the wall in the WCC and inquires to the MW about an Olympic sports membership and beats Wichita to the punch. This leaves the MW with 14 football and 14 Olympic sports members.

MW:
Mountain: Memphis, SMU, Air Force, Colorado State, Boise State, New Mexico, Wyoming
West: Utah State, Fresno State, San Jose State, Nevada, San Diego State,
UNLV, Hawaii

With the Texas schools gone, Navy contemplates leaving the AAC but comes up with a plan: get back into Texas and get Army on board to free up a non-conference slot. Army did not enjoy its previous stint in a conference because they were in over their head. This time around, it will be a good fit. The AAC adds four schools to get to 10: Army, Rice, UTEP, and UAB. The conference stays with 9 in basketball and goes to a 16-game schedule, which will allow Temple and Wichita State multiple OOC opportunities.

AAC:
West: Navy, Army, Rice, UTEP, Tulsa
East: UAB, ECU, Tulane, Temple, USF

At this point, C-USA is left with 11 schools. I'm torn as to whether they would stay at 11 or expand by one school to get to 12. Ultimately, I think they would succeed in adding Appalachian State.

C-USA:
West: WKU, MTSU, LaTech, North Texas, Southern Miss, UTSA
East: App State, Charlotte, ODU, Marshall, FIU, FAU

The Sun Belt at this point is down to 9 schools. I don't believe Liberty, UMass, or UConn would be interested. I also don't think the conference will want to call up an FCS team (perception-wise this is a bad look). Ultimately, they add New Mexico State to get to 10.

Sun Belt:
West: New Mexico State, Texas State, Louisiana, UL Monroe, Ark State
East: South Alabama, CCU, Georgia State, Georgia Southern, Troy

The MAC remains unchanged.

The remaining independents are Notre Dame, UConn, UMass, and Liberty.

Under this scenario, the basketball power conferences are:
SEC, ACC, B1G, Pac-12, Big East, Big 12

The top mid majors are:
MW, A-10

The next rung of mid-majors are:
MVC, AAC, WCC