McMurphy says Big 12 could stay at 8

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Maize

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Post: #21

RE: McMurphy says Big 12 could stay at 8

Stewart Mandel of The Athletic also chimes in...From The Athletic:

So what does all this mean for the Left-Behind 8?
Per its Form 990, the Big 12 distributed an average of $38.5 million to its members in fiscal year 2020. With TV contracts accounting for 62 percent of the conference’s $409 million in total revenue, it can reasonably be estimated that TV accounted for about $24 million of those schools’ distribution checks.

If the aforementioned TV consultants are correct in their estimate that Oklahoma and Texas generated 50 percent of that value, then the Left-Behind 8 would expect to see that number drop to $12 million per school. Even if the other revenue streams remained the same — unlikely, as the league would also produce fewer bowl and NCAA Tournament teams — their overall share would drop to $26.5 million.

That’s about half what the Big Ten currently distributes to its members and about 40 percent of what the SEC is projected to reach if Oklahoma and Texas come aboard.

And that $12 million TV figure might prove too optimistic if/when the Big 12 negotiates its next contract. On one hand, sports rights in general have skyrocketed in the nine years since the conference last went to the market. On the other, such a depleted conference does not figure to garner a bidding war between networks, which could dampen the price.

A more useful recent analog, given the viewership numbers cited earlier, might be the AAC’s new ESPN deal that began in 2020. That contract nets its schools about $7 million a year on average.

Unfortunately, that $7 million-to-$12 million range does not bode well for the Left-Behind 8’s chances of landing an invitation to one of the other Power 5 conferences. The ACC, Big Ten and Pac-12 are unlikely to invite a school that would drag down its current members’ slice of the conference pie. All three currently make far more than that from media rights.

The more realistic play is for the AAC and Left-Behind 8 to join forces in some capacity. The only question is which league will raid the other. Sources told The Athletic’s Nicole Auerbach that the “Power 6” conference plans to become an aggressor.

Meanwhile, a Big 12 AD lamented to The Athletic’s Bruce Feldman last week that “bringing in a Cincinnati and UCF doesn’t bring any eyeballs.”

Technically, that AD’s not wrong. There’s no evidence to suggest those schools bring in more eyeballs than his. But he may need to come to terms with the reality that his school may soon be held in similar regard.

https://theathletic.com/2731657/2021/07/...ed_article

(This post was last modified: 07-27-2021 06:33 PM by Maize.)

07-27-2021 06:33 PM