(06-10-2021 02:04 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  

(06-10-2021 01:10 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(06-10-2021 12:10 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(06-10-2021 11:44 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(06-09-2021 08:58 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  IMO, there are several all-sport, football-first, athletic programs that could definitely grow and develop over time under the American banner. The AAC will likely wait for a sure thing that immediately provides value (Boise, BYU, Army, etc.). They haven't come, nor will they for various reasons.

With the right investment, they can add a program that can get a boost with recruiting and viewership, and in the right market, it could pay huge dividends as a long-term asset to the league.

I doubt anyone gets added, but there are a few programs with strong potential with the AAC association.

I couldnt disagree more. What your suggesting is a "close your eyes and cross your fingers pick" where the league simply HOPES the school will develop into a high quality member. HOPE is not a strategy any more than buying a lottery ticket every week is a viable retirement plan.

The bolded part is true. This is the exact argument many fans make for adding non-P5 Team X to any P5 conference. "Add them now, give them 10 years, and with the [insert name of conference] branding and TV revenue, they will grow into a strong member of [insert name of conference]." And the response to that is always pretty much what you're saying above, ie, "After they become good enough to be a strong member of this conference, then we'll invite them."

Exactly. Without going though all the math, 2016 showed us that even with a pro-rata clause in the media contract, adding a G5 just no longer makes sense for P5's because P5 conferences now make so much money from sources that do not automatically increase when you add more members (CFP, bowls, NCAA basketball credits, sponsorships, etc.). I think P5 conferences, for the most part, have hit the wall of diminishing returns when it comes to expansion. The only way expansion makes sense anymore for a P5 is if its adding a major high value king pin program (like UT or Oklahoma). The hole left behind after such a raid is the only way a G5 might move up---and even then the numbers might indicate the raided conference is better off standing pat.

I agree with what you said. But what if the Big 10 poaches Oklahoma and Kansas from the Big XII. And the Big XII backfills with Cincinnati and Florida State say. Would the AAC stand pat at 10?

I suspect they would. The replacement choices would not have improved--and with 10 members---the league no longer has scheduling problems. So, unless BYU, Boise, or Army is interested---I think the AAC would just divide into two 5-team divisions and continue on. If they later discover having 10 members is adversely affecting their playoff chances--they can always reassess the expansion options available.