(05-03-2021 12:44 PM)Stammers Wrote:  

(05-03-2021 11:12 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(05-03-2021 10:46 AM)SeñorTiger Wrote:  You all forget you are watching a high school highlight clip reel... Moussa looked absolutely dominate in his clips. Again, I think Sam will have a great career here but if you are expecting him to play more than 10-12 minutes a game and be more than a 5 ppg and 5 rebounds then you are setting yourself up for disappointment...

10-12?

Let's put things in perspective:

Last 10+ years of bigs (frosh stats):

Moussa (#10 reclassified) 6.6 ppg 6.3 rpg
Wiseman (only 3 games #1/2 in class) 19.7 ppg 10.7 ppg
Malco Dandridge (#106) 3.4 ppg 3.0 rpg
Lance Thomas (#120 at 'Ville): 2.2 ppg 1.3 rpg
Dedric Lawson (#36) 15.8 ppg 9.3 rpg
Nick Marshall (#95) 3.1 ppg 2.7 rpg
Dominic Woodson (#77) 2.5 ppg 1.9 rpg
Austin Nichols (#22) 9.3 ppg 4.3 rpg
Shaq (#35) 7.4 ppg 4.4 ppg
Tarik Black (#62) 9.1 ppg 5.0 rpg
Stan Simpson (#190 at Illinois) 0.5 ppg 0.4 rpg
Hippolyte Tsafack (#174) 1.0 ppg 0.3 rpg


Basically (Tarik being the outlier) only guys 35 or better really contributed as Frosh.

One could expect the guys in the 90-120 range to be 3and 3 guys while the further you do down (in the 180's) those guys were mop ups.

Sam is right in that spot at 100. 3 and 3 would be on target.

But I'm sure people will "explain" that somehow he's the one recruit who hasn't happened to be rated properly and he's more "in the top 30-40 range" if there had been AAU or some other situation.

Just like how Malco was horribly underrated and his skills set, body, and maturity didn't belie his 100+ ranking. Yet somehow after two seasons his still only at 3.6 ppg and 2.9 rpg.

It's not that at all, it is more dependent on roster and need. CDR at 8.3 points per game is 100X better than Brewton at 9.1 points per game. Obviously, you can have a player be infinitely superior to another player, even if they don't score as much.

13.3 Davenport
9.1 Brewton
8.1 Parks
6.9 Jamal Johnson
5.2 Randall (?)

8.3 CDR
7.2 Anderson
6.6 Crawford
5.6 Dozier
4.6 Dorsey

It all depends on Dandridge being healthy, his level of play, and foul trouble on Dandridge and DW. Against some opponents, DW won't be able to guard their center.

If Sam has a pulse and it's completely lost, he is probably looking at 8 minutes at the low end, and 14 minutes at the high end. I'm guessing he will be in the 12 minute range. You can't just shoehorn players into a scoring range based on their ranking. If Sam plays 8 minutes, he will produce at a certain level. If he plays 18 minutes, he will produce at a different level.

Your Dandridge example is invalid, because he hasn't been healthy.

The first three were JUCO's.

The discussion is frosh bigs. Jamal was a top 85 recruit and played a bit above what most #85's would do. He didn't knock it out of the park, but scored more than what would generally be expected.

Then of course the reason--the team sucked and he was allowed to play a bunch.

And he's a prefect example. He sat out a year, then went to a really good Auburn team. 0 starts, 11 mpg and 3.5 ppg.
The next year as a 4th year Junior, he starts half of the games for a bad Auburn team, plays 26 minutes a game and averages 9.4 points.
He didn't get better, his team got worse. And now he's at UAB.

So the idea that "if Jamal Johnson is playing 26 minutes a game then we're in trouble" absolutely holds true.

If you are referring to Craig Randall--he averaged 2.2 as a frosh.

As for Dozier, AA, and Dorsey they were all about where they should have been as frosh based on rankings and placement. Joey is hard to nail down since he was 21 y/o as a frosh and had various rankings and names.

CDR overperformed at #75, probably would be expected to be a 5 and 3 guy in the fat part of the curve.

Chris Crawford also got more play, partially due to the fact there wasn't a lot of depth. There were no returning guards, so his PT was wide open. And that team finished 4th in CUSA and barely made the tournament.