(10-09-2020 04:43 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(10-09-2020 04:32 PM)ChrisLords Wrote:  I think Iowa State, West Virginia, Baylor, and Texas Christian would take the G5 schools that would most help their football profile. So the schools that have been to major bowls and have the recent history of winning. Also, I think they will want to keep the number of members at 10. That way they can maximize revenue. 9 football games plus a championship game, 18 basketball games and the minimum number of Olympic sports sponsored by the conference since they are so geographically dispersed.


Baylor
Boise State
BYU
Central Florida
Cincinnati
Houston
Iowa State
Memphis
Texas Christian
West Virginia

I think you could get to 12 with South Florida and, say, SMU. Split divisions by geography.

West: Baylor, Boise St, BYU, Iowa St, SMU, TCU
East: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, South Florida, West Virginia

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That would be a damn good FB conference. From top to bottom, it might be as competitive as the current Big-12.

The only missing factor would be the lack of a nationally dominant program of Oklahoma's stature, but it's possible that one might emerge after a few years of conference play.

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Needless to say, it would be a disaster for the AAC, which would lose four (or six) of its best teams. To survive, they would need to either reload (with App State, Marshall, Buffalo, WKU, etc.) or merge with the MWC, which would have a total of 16 or 18 members after losing Boise St.

Mountain West Division: SDSU, SJSU, Fresno, Nevada, UNLV, Utah St., Wyoming, New Mexico,* & Hawaii (FB)

American Eastern Division: Air Force, CSU, Tulsa, Tulane, Navy/Wichita, Temple, ECU, SMU,* & USF*

*If SMU & USF were to join the Big 12, the merged MWC/AAC would have 16 members, and New Mexico would be in the American East Division.

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Q: Would Oklahoma be able to maintain its current status as one of the top 5 FB schools in the country, after switching conferences?

A: Not necessarily. Their former top FB rival, Nebraska, was for decades one of the nation's top FB powerhouses, but the Cornhuskers program has steadily declined since they left the Big 12:

* Nebraska has not finished in the Final AP Top 20 once in their decade in the Big Ten. In the prior decade (2001-2010) in the Big 12, Nebraska had four teams in the Final AP Top 20.

* Nebraska has had three losing seasons in a row (2017, 2018, & 2019), for the first time since the 1950s.

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Q: In general, have the major (P5, SWC, & Big East) FB programs tended to be successful after switching to another major conference?

A: No, the vast majority have not. For every school that maintained a relatively high success rate after switching to another major conference, there have been six schools that have had less, or little success.

Only two programs (Louisville and VT) have been able to maintain a relatively high level of success (e.g., maintaining an average 60%+ winning percentage) after switching to another major conference.

- - However, Louisville hasn't had any Final AP Top 20 teams since joining the ACC, after having had three Final AP Top 20 teams as a member of the Big East.

- - Virginia Tech had the most success after switching conferences, but they have only had one Final AP Top 20 team in the past 9 seasons, after having had six Final AP Top 20 teams in their last 9 seasons in the Big East.

These eleven programs, most of which had been very, or fairly successful before switching conferences, have had less, or little success after switching to another major (P5) conference:

Arkansas, Nebraska, Missouri, Colorado, Miami, West Virginia, Syracuse, Pitt, Boston College, Rutgers, and Maryland.