(08-13-2020 03:05 PM)Boca Rocket Wrote:  It was said that the herd immunity threshold would
be lowered to 43% based on the model where younger people would become infected and transmit
the virus without deadly consequences to each other.

We still won't be there when the vaccines first come out, IMO. And, lowering it because younger people don't seem to have as high of a risk of death is dangerous.

IMO, your statement above should be tweaked. It sounds like you are saying that there are no deadly consequences for younger people. That simply is not true....while rare, some children have died......a 9 year old recently died in Georgia for instance. I also think that most younger children have had less chance of exposure than adults because for the most part they have been sitting at home more.. But even so, I do agree that death seems to be rare in children.

The other issue I am having with the statement above is that it sounds like you are saying that younger people will mostly just transmit the virus to each other and not adults. IMO, we need to see what happens with kids going back to school in some of the areas of the country that they are going back in person. At this point we do not know how much spread will happen, and in turn spread to adults (in some cases grandparents) that live or interact with these children. We really don't know yet what will happen, but I have a feeling we are going to see spread of the virus to children and adults to the point that even 50% protection (vaccine) over the US population will not slow down the virus enough that we can just stop wearing masks and social distancing.

And one more thing to ponder if anyone thinks we go back to normal in November........schools around where I live have already said they will be 100% virtual through winter break and then if things look okay to proceed they will implement a hybrid approach for the remainder of the 2020-21 school year. This hybrid approach will have about 50% of students fully virtual and 50% of students going in person for two days and virtual the rest of the week. That is not going back to normal after the election, or after a vaccine is ready......IMO.

We're not almost out of this. It's going to take quite a bit of time, even after vaccines are ready.