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(05-22-2020 11:06 AM)Bearhawkeye Wrote:  

(05-21-2020 06:12 PM)rtaylor Wrote:  Wide open? Washington, Oregon, Michigan State , and Notre Dame, all made the playoff and we're subsequently routed. They had no chance, no momentum, crazy bounces, or anything could have helped them. They were over matched.

Like Alabama was overmatched in the NC game last year proved they had no chance at a NC? Anything can happen in small samples - that's the point and that's why they play the games.

There's only 60 P5 teams, nobody is arguing that they all have a great shot at the playoffs or winning the NC. All I've been saying is that if a team is actually good enough to make the 4 team playoffs it's silly in most cases to say they have no chance of winning 2 games to be NC. Please pay attention.

I'm with RTaylor. We've got a whole bunch of data of when these teams that aren't the elite mega programs make the playoffs they get destroyed. Best I can remember none of them has played a reasonably competitive game vs. the Bama, Clemson, OSU types. If the odds of them beating one of those schools in a semifinal game is 1/10 (I actually think it's lower based on results) the odds of them doing it twice is less than 1/100. I don't consider 1% a reasonable chance.