(03-05-2020 09:20 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(03-05-2020 08:58 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Here's the core issue: the Pac-12 knows better than anyone how tenuous the relationships are in the Big 12 despite all of the money.

Some of the relationships are tenuous, but some are not. The relations among the Texas schools are pretty solid, and between the Texas schools and the Oklahoma schools. What is tenuous are the true SWC - Big 8 fault lines, which is basically the Kansas schools and Iowa State. And they know what they are without the Texas schools. So in a shell, I think the Big 12 is more solid than you think.

But about the PAC, I agree. I think those who look at TV ratings and see the PAC getting a big haircut in its 2024 deal are in for a big surprise, as all the evidence suggests that the PAC will get paid at a P5 level. And as I've noted, the PACN situation is fixable, they haven't tied themselves in for any time with it at all, they could change course on that.

IOW's, I don't see either the Big 12 or PAC as being unstable, and do not anticipate either raiding the other in 2024/2025.

All that said, by 2024 we might all be dead from the coronavirus. The reality is that right now, the PAC is suffering revenue-wise because of the Scott PACN fumble, and that is where these drumbeats are coming from. A big danger to the PAC is that some very major college properties - the B1G's tier one rights, and the SEC's game of the week package - both come to market right before the PAC's rights in 2024, and those deals could suck the big money Scott and the PAC are banking on out of the room. Scott seems all-in on the "just wait for 2024" strategy, not surprising since it is his baby, and so he would likely have to go for the PAC to move sooner on a deal, which might be wise. Scott has to go in any event, LOL.

The SEC renegotiating Tier I early was a good strategic move. And it could make things more difficult for the Pac 12 and Big 12. ESPN has added more SEC content. Fox and ESPN will be bidding on Big 10 and only then will they get to the Pac 12 and Big 12. One of the two could conceivably have little room for content from the Pac 12 and/or Big 12. So with one less bidder, that means less money.