(01-07-2020 02:13 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  I don't see a scenario where an American or Mountain West school would go Independent.

UConn is Basketball, and they had the opportunity to join essentially a "P5" basketball conference in the Big East. For schools in the American and Mountain West, they are already in the highest Basketball conference that is not P5 and any non-P5 membership option means downgrading your basketball.

BYU's move looks to have been a bit of a downgrade, as besides Gonzaga (which in effect is a Big East school unfortunately located 1400 miles too far West) the league plays in glorified high school gyms. BYU consoles itself with the religious association, and has been able to set up a pseudo P5 football schedule in most years, much higher SoS than other G5 schools. But it's not a path open to other schools.

For San Diego State only membership in a true power conference would be acceptable, as a Big West membership is death to the Basketball program (look at how UC Santa Barbara with plenty of financial resources to tap has dropped from high mid-majors often hovering around top 25 rankings in the 90's to well below the top 150 programs today). Boise State the same, although they are more a football school. There simply are no good Olympic sports options in the West, which effectively kills the option. (Long run Colorado State is likely to join that western list, and one does have to keep an eye on UNLV to see if they ever develop into anything athletically or academic)

Hawaii is a possibility posters bring up -given they already are in a separate Olympic conference-, but the willingness of power programs to visit the Islands has waned so much that they need the MWC. If they dropped out even the MWC schools would mostly drop them from the schedule, given how much of a hassle they are to visit.

For schools in the American I would add Memphis to the list Frank the Tank gave. Their academic index is so dreadful they failed to get a Rose in the B12 search, and Carnegie dropped them a category (same for East Carolina). Central Florida might be the next school to get to that point as well. But after the P5 and the Big East, the American is the strongest Basketball conference, seemingly locked into 3 bids. Losing UConn, doesn't help, but Wichita State gave them instant depth alongside Cincy, Houston and Memphis, plus sometimes strong SMU and Temple. There is no place to park your Olympics that comes close, unless maybe the A10 accepts you. And the Football contract is probably as good as they can expect. So it would be a risky proposition.

For these reasons the top schools will remain in the twilight zone of very high non-power for the foreseeable future.

If any shakeup comes, it will be from schools leaving the Big 12, leading the remnasts to pick up the strongest G5 schools to move into a slightly higher twilight zone on the edge of "P4" status.

Note: Frank makes a good point about a G5 access to an 8 team playoff, as that would take the sting out of being G5 for the highest teams there -- I think you'd see 3 or 4 MWC schools invest heavily in their programs if that option came open (not just Boise State).

Just chiming in to correct the bolded. Memphis has always been R2 and has risen within the category. They were six schools below the R1 cutoff this last time around. Using the same metrics (which you can't do as other schools are investing in research as well), the school is spending R1 $ as of Dec 1, 2019. With the commitments and programs scheduled to come online within the next year, they are projecting to be at least 20 spots above the cutoff for the next classification. The stated goal was R1 within 5 years and looks as if it will be obtained within 3. Memphis also received tier 1 status from USNWR this year for the first time. I think it's a technicality, but the school claims it (public university ratings). The endowment is the thing really lacking and making slow progress. If a DO program at the Jackson campus gets approved, it would help. Academics has always been a black eye, but the improvement within the last five years has been surprising...to me at least. They are heading in the right direction since getting out from under the TBR thumb by establishing their own BOT. It still may too little too late, but they aren't regressing as far as I can tell.