I don't think anybody considers moving to the AAC.

The gaps is $2.5m for the 10 schools for 2020-26. (The 3% per year increase in the AAC deal means they are below the $6.9m in the first 6 years, at it the 7th and above it the final 5 years -- I have a table and it's pretty consistent.) But it's probably less, as ESPN carries with it a production cost of over $1m passed on the the schools of the American. (This basically means the MAC gets almost nothing in return for football broadcasts)

But even so, while $15m over 6 years sounds like a lot, but you have to consider the negative costs. Moving to the American means dropping your Olympics in a crap conference, which will significantly harm gate and donations for Basketball (look at what happened to once ranked Long Beach State and UC Santa Barbara after the Big West lost schools like NMSU, Fresno State and UNLV --- they fell off the radar). But even worse these schools would be walking away from at least a years distribution of the MWC (next year that will be $5-6m counting the TV revenue and Basketball credits), paying an exit fee (I think that is a few $million as well), losing you conference basketball credits, and paying a $5m entry fee.

It would take the better part of a decade to not be underwater. Worse you've thrown away your regional rivals, and traded for schools across the country who are not competing for the same students and likely hold less fan interest. You would be the new UConn of the America, an outlier. And worse you've sacrificed your Basketball and other sports to be that stepchild. For Boise State and their $5.7m per year, you definitely don't come close to breaking even.

All the above assumes the AAC does not lose any schools to the B12 and that the back half of the contract with ESPN is not adjusted downward. But we all know OU, Texas and possibly KU could be leaving the B12, leading them to back fill with very likely the top 2 or 3 American schools (picking 3 for the sake of argument: UCF, Cincy and Houston) dramatically reducing the conferences value, forcing the conference composition clause to kick in.

Everyone in the MWC is well aware of that very reasonable probability. All would certainly want to wait out events to see what transpires before committing to a conference switch. What's more in 2026 the MWC will go back to the table and work another deal and the gap may close further on the back end of the AAC deal.

A basketball add like VCU or Dayton may be more sensible for the American. Although to be honest, why bother? They are likely a 3 bid conference again this year, and given that is probably all the committee is likely to ever give them, why add another mouth? Also they play 20 conference games now, so you have the same inventory for 11 school (110 games) and you'd have with 12 schools for 18 game to have a balanced schedule (108 games). Basically ESPN would have to pay the American more to even consider. And unless I'm mistaken the American appears to be splitting UConn's vacated share, so why give that money to any new Football or Basketball school?

Only if the CCG cannot continue (denied waiver in two years and no rule change on round robin requirement) would the American even consider another school, and that would have to be all sports.

I think Attackcoogs original opinion, that the AAC is not adding anyone for the foreseeable future is probably correct. Oklahoma's conference decision will determine what the next move is. The NCAA will almost certainly extend the waiver, as it's the easiest way to deal with the issue if they do not remove the round robin requirement, since kicking the can down the road causes the least disruption.