People are saying LSU, Ohio State, and Clemson are all locks. The simulation I use gives each team an 80%+ chance of amking the playoff. But which teams have a loss to give? Is there a more robust way of articulating who is a lock?

I count SIX teams that control their playoff destiny, with a miniscule chance that more than 4 happen. Do you count more or less?
1. Baylor, if undefeated
2. Clemson, if undefeated
3. LSU, with 1 or fewer losses
4. OSU, with 1 or fewer losses
5. Minnesota/Penn State, champs with 1 or fewer losses

I don't know if I agree that a 12-1 Georgia is behind 1-loss Big Ten non-champions (or, for that matter, an LSU team they just beat), but other than that this seems to check out. The media keeps mentioning 11-1 Alabama, but I'd put 11-1 Ohio State as more playoff worthy... of course 'Bama's loss is earlier in the season, which somehow means something.

Here is the full data. Remember that many of these outcomes are mutually exclusive and the chart below could be condensed (ie. "60%, 1-loss Big 12 Champ" or "20%, Iron Bowl winner").

100% 13-0 Baylor, LSU, Ohio State, Minnesota
100% 12-1 Ohio State
99% 12-1 LSU
99% 12-1 Penn State
98% 13-0 Clemson
98% 12-1 Ohio St (lose CCG)
98% 11-1 Ohio St
96% 12-1 LSU (lose CCG)
93% 12-1 Minnesota
82% 12-1 Georgia
80% 12-1 Minnesota (lose CCG)
62% 12-1 Oklahoma
59% 12-1 Baylor
57% 11-2 Wisconsin
42% 10-2 Michigan
38% 12-1 Cincy
34% 12-1 Baylor (lose CCG)
23% 11-1 Alabama
17% 10-2 Auburn
8% 11-2 Penn State (lose CCG)
7% 12-1 Oregon

Personally I think all CCGs should be elimination games... even if the SEC matches #1 vs. #2. Then there should be a wild card game on championship weekend for teams like 11-1 Alabama and the Big Ten east runner-up, for those teams to "play-in" to the playoff, or at least to be playoff-eligible.