(10-05-2019 09:42 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  In this hypothetical scenario, despite the Big 12 surviving the expiration of its current GoR intact, the CFP remains at 4 teams rather than expanding to 8. As such, when the Big 12 finally does kick the bucket as a power conference, we have either a de facto or a de jure CFP autobid for each of the P4 conference champs. Thus Notre Dame is compelled to join a conference in full or effectively be shut out of the CFP. Even without the public NC and VA schools, the ACC is still a competitive conference that offers access to Southern recruiting grounds (expanding into Texas adds to this) and would be ND's likely pick to join. I'm sure they'll expect and receive some special immunity from penalties for leaving the conference.

I'm thinking by the 2030s, the Pac will have come to realize that they cannot compete financially with the Big Ten and SEC unless they net UT. So they give UT a very generous offer, accommodating the Longhorn Network in some form and adding OU (which is also to the Pac's benefit). They also pinch their noses and permit TT and OSU to tag along, as they would have in the early 2010s.

The Big Ten and SEC will be satisfied with their eastern adds for the time being and will not be focused on small-population Kansas, even if KU has improved its football program significantly by then. So KU will gratefully accept the lifeline thrown to them by the restocking ACC, despite the awkward geography and little brother being left behind.

Could not the PAC make that offer sooner? I know administrators have tons of pride and don't want to admit that they don't have a strong position but everyone else know that they have to get into the Central Time Zone.

I have read that one of the reasons why UNC didn't leave at the last opportunity was that they didn't like the culture of the SEC and didn't want State to get stronger at their expense. Also, the way the state colleges at NC is organized is complicated. Yes, things could change in fifteen years but it would take a lot get them off that position.