(09-06-2019 07:10 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Let’s try to keep realignment scenarios grounded in reality. There is no one in D2 that is anywhere near being able to catapult into FBS.

NMSU’s best bet for an FBS conference is for there to be movement that opens a G5 slot.

Plan B is to hope for more FCS move ups/start ups to create a scheduling alliance that eventually evolves into a league.

Even if there's some sort of G5 movement (say 2 AAC teams to the Big 12, AAC raiding CUSA/SBC, and so on...), I'm kind of wondering if NMSU would get a call.

If the MWC were to lose a team, I think they'd be more likely to look at Texas school for a replacement. Certainly UTEP would trump NMSU, and my memory says UNT had expressed interest in the MWC a number of years ago. I don't know if that would still be true for UNT, since they're in a conference with several other Texas schools. But it seems unlikely NMSU is #1 in line for the MWC.

Same thing for CUSA; they're more likely to raid the Sun Belt. The only argument for NMSU is getting a travel partner for UTEP, and I don't think CUSA is really using that sort of travel matrix. But beyond travel, no real argument for them to be in over several Sun Belt teams.

Which basically leaves the Sun Belt. If they lose a team, is NMSU their #1 option?

Argument for NMSU: Certainly they would strengthen basketball, but NMSU isn't bringing home the tournament bacon with extra tourney credits from wins, so that's not a big bonus. Likely the SBC is still a one bid conference most years even with NMSU on board.

Argument against NMSU: The Sun Belt could have kept them and even added them all-sports if they valued NMSU basketball. Instead, they elected to go with a low-funded, relatively growth limited program in Coastal Carolina. Certainly CCU baseball is big time, but that's a completely different situation from FB and BB. That a school with a basically brand new FB program and no BB success was added shows that the SBC considers NMSU to be of little value and/or outside of their footprint.

Additionally, you have to wonder what other FCS call-ups are available the next time an opening occurs. Foregoing some of the lunacy in this thread, I'm looking at James Madison. They've allegedly only been willing to move up for an AAC or CUSA bid, but I think they've got to accept at this point that the SBC is their only option for FBS. If JMU has come to that realization, I think they're instantly #1 for the SBC from the reasonably realistic prospects.

Now, NMSU may line up better against some of the other oft-mentioned prospects like Eastern Kentucky and Jacksonville State. Those schools are so growth limited and minor players that NMSU has to be a better pick. Hell, I think the SBC would take UConn FB-only over those schools.

It really seems to me that FCS is tapped out for promotion-ready schools east of the Mississippi. Other than JMU and Delaware, I'm really at a loss to think of a school that is ready to move up. Kennesaw State may eventually grow into it, but they're not really ready right now. Not that CCU was really ready either, so maybe the Sun Belt would go for Kennesaw just on growth potential.

In the remainder of the SBC footprint, there's the various Louisiana and Texas FCS schools, but none of them really seem to be ready or would add value to the SBC. Is Stephen F. Austin, Central Arkansas, McNeese St, or Sam Houston St really a better pickup than NMSU at that point? I don't think so. Even some program like Incarnate Word that is being bankrolled by a billionaire isn't going to be worth adding.

Bottom-line: NMSU needs a near perfect scenario to occur for them to be #1 in line. It's just the reality of being in the middle of nowhere in a sparsely populated state. The only thing that might work out for them would be that rumored (but imo, highly unlikely) CUSA-SBC geographic shuffle to reduce the geographic overlap. That might end up with an odd number of teams in the western conference that would make NMSU a prospect.