Captain Bearcat
All-American in Everything
Posts: 9,504
Joined: Jun 2010
Reputation: 768
I Root For: UC
Location: IL & Cincinnati, USA
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Endgame for Hong Kong?
Hong Kong has had massive protests for the last 10 weekends. At its peak, 1 out of every 7 residents were in the streets. Now it's spreading to weekdays.
Today, protesters took over Hong Kong International Airport. All flights were canceled. It's one of the busiest airports in the world.
Does China crack down? These protests are similar in size to Tiananmen Square in 1989. But it's not 1989 any more. They won't be able to suppress domestic coverage of a brutal crackdown like they did in 1989. And China is no longer a hermit state. In 2019, China's lifeblood is exports to Democracies, so images similar to Tank Man will have trade repercussions that will cause a massive recession. The Communist Party derives its legitimacy from its phenomenal economic progress over the last 3 decades, and a depression will cause many Chinese to question that legitimacy.
China could give in. The protester's demands seem simple to agree to. Resignation of Hong Kong's leader, amnesty for protesters, and a permanent withdrawal of the extradition bill. But if China gives in here, the whole mainland will see Beijing's weakness.
A third option is to just continue to ignore the protester's demands and hope that protesters eventually give up. But will the protesters tire out this time? Many of them seem convinced that this is their last chance to save the Rule of Law.
How does this situation end?
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08-12-2019 09:18 AM |
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