(07-30-2019 06:44 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  

(07-30-2019 04:28 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-30-2019 03:50 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Overwhelmingly likely exactly where it is now.

But if the G5 has fewer schools in 2026, IMO it will almost surely be because some schools could not afford the cost of constant $25m subsidies for football and dropped out, not because some got promoted to the P5.

If there are defections from the Big 12, and the remaining 6 or 7 schools refill by adding 4 to 7 of the existing G5 we will have a tweener conference that will be stronger than the AAC. If that happens I think there will be consolidation into a G4 and possibly even a G3.

There is as much stratification within the G5 as there is within the P5 and between the two.

I could easily see Cincinnati, Houston, South Florida, Central Florida and possibly Memphis getting the call up, and I think the metrics are there for East Carolina if they aren't too much of an outlier.

At that point I think the AAC becomes the best of the rest and CUSA and/or the Sunbelt goes away.

But this only happens if there is movement from the Big 12. Otherwise it's status quo.

If 4 schools leave the Big 12, I think the Big 12 rebuilds with 4 of the AAC schools you mentioned. While 12 would be good for geographic divisions I think they stay small to avoid diluting the brand more than they have to.

The AAC will rebuild from C-USA, and in turn C-USA might need a school or 2 from the SBC.

The MAC and MWC will remain unchanged:

Big 12: 10-4+4 from AAC = 10

AAC: 11-4+3 from C-USA= 10

C-USA: 14-3+1 from SBC/FCS= 12

The power 5 legislation is in place already and the big 12 and AAC will merge for 16 teams just like the rest of the power 5... the breakaway is complete...and I think the new group will retain the American brand and get a bump with the new arraignment.... the breakaway nets 80 teams and the new structure will have 8 team playoff with each power 5 with a team 1 G4 team and two at large ....

The rest of the power teams will not allow a 10 team conference after the next round...also the 16... creates two eight team divisions for regional rivalries.