(07-24-2019 08:57 AM)Once a Knight... Wrote:  

(07-23-2019 02:23 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Nothing we didn't really know already. Heck A&M nearly went to the SEC and Colorado to the Pac-10 which led to the formation of the Big 12. That they both left to their almost destinations when the B12 was approached by the P10 and B10 comes as no shock. Heck the P10 suspected as much and had Utah ready as an A&M back up.

I increasingly get the impression from all the various stories that Oklahoma State was always used as just a pawn by Oklahoma and not much of a participant in anything, except as a little brother riding along. The Sooners were willing to ditch them for a B1G spot in another rumor.

The B12 is down to the big 2 and the little 8. Where I separate from the Texas wont leave crowd is that Texas looks out for themselves first and foremost. The B12 works for them as long as Oklahoma sticks. But when Oklahoma leaves, it stops working for them, as there is no longer enough left. Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State and West Virginia are all more often bottom half of the P5 schools than top --which matches the resources they can affordcommit to it-- and Baylor is middle.

From this perspective Texas has three choices:

1. Follow OU to the B1G or SEC
2. Stay put with the little-8
3. Choose another conference to belong to

Texas has kicked the tires with the Pac-12, and that doesn't work due to travel. They have explored the B1G and that just doesn't fit quite right, although joining OU there would mitigate some of the concerns they have about fitting, since the Red River rivalry would still go on. Similar situation with the SEC, where they would no longer enjoy superior resource advantage and would find themselves in a death match every year to make the playoffs. In both the B1G and SEC they'd no longer be the unquestioned big cheese.

That leaves the ACC. And I think that would work for them. They might even be able to bring TCU with them. It would give them a Notre Dame game every 3rd year, and they'd be with schools where they would still be the biggest cheese, but also have peers like Duke, North Carolina, Virginia and Georgia Tech. They could also likely finish out the LHN deal and so still be on par with the SEC and B1G or close financially.

The Big Cheese works just as well staying put, but replacing Oklahoma is problematic. Texas would likely decide who that 10th school is -- or even if there is a 10th, they may just say nobody, we'll play 8 Football games, allowing everyone to schedule another OOC game. Thinking outside the box, they might even go for a Basketball school instead. Texas would use it's OOC games to build schedule strength.

I think the ACC model is easier and more stable long run.

Your comments about Texas leaving if Oklahoma leaves is where I personally disagree. Texas was in their own Texas-based SWC (a power conference) for 80 yrs before joining up with Oklahoma and the Big 8 in 1996. Texas likes being the big fish, the center of attention, with the power. Texas would be even more the center of attention and the glue that holds the remaining Big 12 together without Oklahoma. Texas isn't a cultural fit (or geographical) for the Pac-12. Same can be said for the Big Ten and ACC. SEC is probably the closest fit, but would TAMU really want to deal with Texas again. I dunno. I think the bigger issue is if Texas goes to another conference they aren't the heart and focal point of that conference but just another member (albeit a big member). Even if multiple members were to leave the Big 12 once more (say the Oklahoma and Kansas schools), the Big 12 would be able to backfill with BYU (football only) and top AAC schools and be just fine (maybe even better in the long-run as they expand outside of their current footprint).

To caveat, Texas would rebuild some modern variant of the SWC before joining another conference. Which wouldn't be that hard with Houston, Rice, and SMU available. With that said I think only 1 of those (if any) would actually get added, but it isn't so crazy to think about. Memphis, Cincinnati, and UCF/USF would be lesser brands than OU, but could be solid replacements if OU, OSU, Kansas and K-State were all to leave.