(07-11-2019 07:45 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  

(07-11-2019 03:45 AM)goofus Wrote:  If the Big Ten added Texas and Oklahoma, I am not sure what the other P5 conferences could do as a counter move.

The SEC could counter by adding TCU and Ok St. That way, they don't totally concede the Dallas and Oklahoma City Markets, if markets are still important in 2025.

The PAC expanding into the central time zone probably does not make sense without Texas. Maybe the PAC could form an alliance with the remaining Big12, staying as separate conferences but negotiate all tv and bowl contracts together. But in the end they would have to split that money among all members, so what's the point?

The ACC would not have many options, and probably should be more afraid of the SEC raiding them. But schools like UNC would not jump to SEC alone. It would have to be some kind of package deal with UNC, NCSU, Duke, FSU, Clemson And Va all being invited together, which would balloon the SEC to 20 teams. Just don't see that happening. The ACC could give Notre Dame an ultimatum, join the football conference or get out of the ACC all-together. But Notre Dame would probably call that bluff and go back to the Big East. The ACC could maybe merge with the Big 12, but what would that gain them?

Game over, man. The big ten wins.

The SEC and Big 10 make so much money that there's very few schools that make sense for them to add in any scenario.

The only Big 12 schools the SEC would take are Texas, Oklahoma, and maybe Kansas.

The only Big 12 schools the Big 10 would take are Texas, Oklahoma, and maybe Kansas.

The only other schools the SEC would take (in order): North Carolina, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Virginia, and NC State.

The only other schools the Big 10 would take (in order): North Carolina, Virginia, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Duke, and NC State.

And he conveniently forgets that the SEC renews it's 15 year old T1 deal with CBS the year after the Big 10 renews its Fox contract and 1 year before the GOR expires in the Big 12. So the SEC won't be in an inferior financial situation when that round of potential realignment begins. By most projection the Big 10 and SEC will be plus or minus 2 million of each other at that time depending upon the contracts.

I'm not sure when you are talking the 56-60 million range (which is what the per school payouts will be after the next 4 years of escalators are added to the new contracts) will be inclusive of some of the ACC schools you list. We aren't preparing for a market driven pay model in this next realignment, but rather we are preparing for a content driven pay model which is with the exception of T3 rights the present reality. In that kind of pay model I think you can remove Virginia, Georgia Tech, Duke, and N.C. State from that lineup for either the SEC or Big 10. And it is quite possible that a couple of the others might not meet that threshold either.

The only cinch bets are Oklahoma, Texas, Notre Dame, and possibly North Carolina, Florida State or Clemson.