(06-28-2019 03:13 PM)usffan Wrote:  (figured that warning was warranted after I called out another poster for their practice of dumping War and Peace into multiple threads)

There are plenty of people who keep commenting about whether or not UConn is abandoning their P5 aspirations vs. enhancing them going forward. But I think it's worth examining the pathways for ANY program (let alone UConn) to get a P5 invitation.

I will preface this by saying that, in my opinion, there exists something of a pecking order even among the P5. There is no way that we would come to a consensus about what that full pecking order is, but I think we can at the least agree that the SEC and the B1G are the least likely to ever lose members to another conference poaching them, and furthermore it is as close to an iron clad guarantee that, if either decided to expand further, they are VERY unlikely to expand by inviting members who are not currently among the current P5. So in reality, we're only considering the likelihood that the ACC, Big XII or Pac-12 decide to add new schools to the P5 club.

Given the changes in the conference championship requirements, there is little incentive for any of these conferences to expand. Adding a new school without a concomitant reduction in payout means that the new school has to be bringing in value = each school's current payout x that conference's membership number plus 1. So adding a school to the Big XII, for example, would mean the new school is bringing in ~$50MMx11 = $550MM/year. I think we can all agree that no school exists that comes close to that right now, and it's silly to think that somehow UConn's football, which we're currently debating about whether it's worth $7MM/year, would somehow be worth close to 100x that amount to the ACC.

So the only other driver for this would be if one of these conferences gets poached by another conference. And the reason why I struggle to imagine that happening is that there is no obvious financial incentive to either the SEC or the B1G to raid the ACC, Big XII or Pac-12 at this time. Leaving the only driver for this some type of change to the CFP that results in a consolidation of a P5 into a P4 (note, not saying that will happen, but that's the only driver I can see that would result in any realistic realignment).

So, in effect, there will not be ANY school joining the P5 under the current system. At least I can't see any path for it.

USFFan

I suggest that you reconsider you formula (fourth paragraph, "Given the chance..." ) for valuing an expansion candidate. The candidate need only earn enough to conver its own payout share without diminishing the payout to the other ten tems. So the new school need only be worth $50 million per year, not $550 million.