(06-26-2019 05:03 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  

(06-26-2019 04:50 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(06-26-2019 04:41 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  1. They need no waiver to play a CCG with 11

Well, we don't know this. They *do* need a waiver to play a CCG with 11 if they play a traditional schedule--no home-and-homes in the regular season, everyone plays the same number of conference games.

Quote:2. They will make more money per school

Maybe. Navy AD said so, but I'd wait and see. I'll be surprised if the outcome is "UConn leaves, everyone else gets to split their share of the TV contract."

More likely, ESPN will insist on adding a #12, or will claw back 1/12 of the contract.

Quote:3. BYU, Army, and AFA will all probably say no

4. No one else looks like an obvious pick

5. If a consensus candidate east of the Rockies ever emerges they will have room to add them.

Agreed.

The NCAA had no gripes when the MAC and C-USA played CCGs with 13---this is a non issue.

The MAC had already decided Umass’s fate when the waiver became necessary. That situation came about because Temple left the conference before Umass could move in. Thus, the MAC had a plan to go from 12 to 14, and then back to 12. They were simply trying to give UMass a chance to find a new home.

CUSA never intended to play with 13. It was more or less understood the conference would add someone if UAB wasn’t coming back. The NCAA simply gave them time.

Therein lies the problem with the supposed AAC solution: the implication that they intend to stay at 11. The NCAA will grant their waiver for a few years, but they are probably facing the need to add down the line.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see them grant UConn a year or two extra as a football only, then try and apply the waiver thereafter. It’s probably something that’s being negotiated as we type. The AAC doesn’t have to worry about instability right now, so they can afford to take their time and vet the candidates.

In other words, it benefits the AAC to do nothing publicly for the next 3-4 years (if possible) but tell everyone they are “happy at 11”, while quietly encouraging and vetting schools.

This is about pride and ego, too. Most of us would agree that the P6 narrative pretty much went out the window when the Big 12 played head games with the AAC for more money from ESPN. But the AAC still values that separation, so you are about to see them try to do the same thing to their non-Cartel brethren. And if somebody “emerges”...well, imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.

Beyond imitation, this is not the same situation for the AAC as when Tulsa was added. That was the Catholic 7’s pick, and if any of the recently invited schools got a vote, I can’t imagine it was treated as much more than a rubber stamp. Different voting members at a different time may have different tastes in candidate schools.

Finally, we are basing a whole lot of speculation on offhand comments from an unnamed source reprinted in the Cincinnati Enquirer and some comments from Navy AD Chet Gladchuk.